NWSL Week 9 Interlude- The xFun Three

Well, we're somehow already over a third (for most teams) of the way through the new 26 match NWSL schedule. As I've been in South America for the last three weeks, watching non-Thorns NWSL matches has sadly not been at the top of my priority list. The weekly recap columns have been non-existent as a result. My apologies. I promise it wasn't just because there were double game weeks.....though I can't say I'm complaining about the timing!

Fortunately, after a week of trekking through the Peruvian Andes, I have made it to a beach somewhere off the coast of Cartagena, Colombia. As one does when sitting in a beach chair with a Pina Colada in hand (before trading the beach for an air-conditioned Cartagena Cafe because it's 92 degrees with the worst humidity you could ever ask for), I've decided to put together a list of "My three favorite players to watch in 2024" This isn't a best three, or even an underrated three. It's MY favorite three. This is really just a list of players that have stood out to me this season. Players that have surprised. Players with a high xFun value, if you will. One last disclaimer: This is not a list that is going to have Sophia Smith, Temwa Chawinga, Trinity Rodman, or Barbra Banda on it. Plenty has been written elsewhere on those four.

Let's get into it:

Marie Müller, LB- Portland Thorns

Early in the 2024 offseason, the Thorns signed Müller from Frauen Bundesliga side SC Freiburg for an (as is typical for NWSL) undisclosed fee. The signing of the German LB wasn't teased, wasn't analyzed externally, and the Thorns didn't really give much of an indication of how she fit into their plans along with second year pro Reyna Reyes and incumbent Meghan Klingenberg.

After watching as much Müller game tape from her Freiburg era as YouTube could offer, her technical ability was clear to me. As a right-footed LB, she frequently woudl chop back onto her right and combine with her central midfielders or deliver in-swingers into the box. Her profile was of an attacking FB who wasn't necessarily poor defensively, but had some work to do in 1v1s, making me question how she would handle the pace and power of the NWSL's class of top-end wingers. It seemed that the pace of Müller's adaptation to the NWSL would depend on whether her easily observable technical skills --always likely to translate to a league that has traditionally lacked players of her technical quality in defensive positions-- would keep her on the field if her defensive ability let her down a tad.

Through the first nine weeks of the 2024 season, Müller has both all but one match for the suddenly rejuvenated Thorns, making a real argument for a Best 11 spot. I've included her radar chart below and used Spirit LB Casey Krueger --perennially one of the best FBs in the league-- as a point of comparison to show just how absurdly good Müller has been. Müller's diverse array of high marks in varying attacking metrics is extremely impressive: She's hovering around the 90th percentile in every important attacking stat for a FB, most notably progressive carry distance, open play shots created for others, and deliveries into the penalty area. The eye test matches the data: Müller has been assertive in Portland's attack, managing to involve herself in Portland's build-up despite rarely inverting.

Perhaps more importantly for the Thorns, however, she has been a defensive upgrade on Klingenberg who, while also excellent technically, had completely lost whatever limited pace she had by the end of the 2023. Müller's doesn't have elite-level speed by any means, but her long strides and solid defensive positioning make her a perfectly acceptable defensive FB. Müller is a good closing defender: She likes to get touch-tight to her mark and is a powerful in the tackle. Her biggest defensive strength is very clearly her anticipation. She is a remarkable, REMARKABLE anticipator. She's quick to realize where out-passes are coming from, and even quicker to step in front of her winger, especially early in games where the Thorns have pressed high. Having a FB with the athletic profile to close the gaps between the pressing lines and the back line is crucial to a successful press, and Müller has filled that roll perfectly for Portland. YouTube TV won't let me screen-record the game tape, so you'll have to settle for my shoddy videography off my laptop screen. All of these clips are from the match against the Spirit, but you can find similar plays throughout Müller's 2024tape.

Müller's biggest weakness (as indicated by the radar chart and easily observable via the eye test) is the previously-identified isolated 1v1 duels against technically skilled opposition. She has a tendency to get caught flatfooted and upright against speed, and often comes in with her body position too flat relative to the attacker, resulting in stabs toward the ball instead of containment. This weakness showed itself multiple times against the Spirit when Trinity Rodman badly skinned Müller twice late in the second half with the Thorns nursing a 2-0 lead. The first nearly resulted in a Spirit penalty, and the second led directly to a Spirit goal from a Rodman cross.

Müller has been a lynchpin of a resurgent Thorns side and is well on her way to becoming one of the premier FBs in the NWSL at just 23 years old. Luring her stateside is already a tremendous win for a Thorns front office of whom there were (and still are) questions about as the last vestiges of the lame duck Merritt Paulson era are discarded. Most importantly, she's added some much needed stability to a Thorns backline badly in need of ready-to-play talent. On a more macro level, the signing of Müller along with fellow German FBs Maxi Rall (Chicago) and Feli Rauch (North Carolina) indicates a general NWSL trend towards technical FBs- It will be interesting to see if this trend of going abroad to find these types of FBs continues, or whether NWSL teams are able to develop more domestic talent.

Fun side note: There is nobody in world soccer who loves a Cruyff chop turn more than Müller does. Watch for her quick accelerations with the ball at her feet and the subsequent behind-the-standing-leg chop inside.

Summer Yates, LW/AM- Orlando Pride

With all the deserved hubbub around the Pride's exceptionally hot start to 2024 and the immediate game-breaking impact of Zambian striker Barbra Banda, the emergence of second year pro Summer Yates into the creative hub of one of the NWSL's best sides has understandably gone under the radar.

Yates is a bit of weird story. She was, by most talent evaluators, rated as a first round prospect coming out of the University of Washington in the 2023 draft, but slipped all the way to the fourth round possibly (likely) due to some questionable now-deleted right wing social media follows of which NWSL teams were likely hyper-aware after the Sydney Nasello debacle of the previous year. Going to Orlando, a team without a heavy fan presence and therefore less likely to put the kind of pressure on the front office as Thorns fans had done with Nasello the previous season was probably a good move for her career.

Regardless, Yates didn't do much for Orlando during her rookie season despite the Pride finding themselves in desperate need of some attacking juice. Yates played just 117 minutes over 10 matches in 2023, failing to register a goal contribution. 2024, however, has been a much different story. Through nine games, Yates has established herself as the Pride's primary creative engine behind Banda. Among her positional peers, Yates has been shockingly efficient in creating opportunities for both herself and teammates, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in NPxG/shot, NPxG, and xA. It is immensely rare for a player with Yates' profile to have these underlying metrics

Yates' emergence didn't happen immediately, and was initially more of a result of Pride MVP candidate Adriana picking up a knock than an intentional tactical switch. The Pride started the season with an inconsistent rolling front line, using a combination of Adriana, Marta, Ally Watt, and Julie Doyle before signing Banda. Since Banda arrived, the Pride's Brazilian duo have struggled to stay on the field together, not starting a match in the same starting 11 since March 29th against Utah. Hines has used Yates as a roaming playmaker to fill gaps in the Pride lineup depending on the injury, playing her as both an inverted winger and a pure 10.

Yates is a jitterbug: She has a low center of gravity and is excellent with both feet. She also has been a beneficiary of the Pride's high press, which is among the best in the league at forcing turnovers off balls played into the midfield. She also wants to drive right at the defense. You're not going to see a lot of backwards or sideways passing from Yates. In the first clip, the Pride's midfield press (in this case, Haley McCutcheon) picks off a poor San Diego ball into midfield, the ball deflects to Yates and she's GONE. There's some poor defending in this clip as well, but this is what happens when a player puts pressure on a backline.

The first clip shows off Yates' ability to run at a defense, but this second clip shows her development as a creator. The play starts the same way many of Yates' touches do: She cuts inside from the left. After that, however, is where she shows off some of her growth. College era (or rookie year) Summer Yates keeps her head down and drives forward, much like she does in the first clip. Instead, Yates picks her head up and plays an inch-perfect diagonal into the feet of the onrushing Julie Doyle.

Yates ranks second in the league in shot creating actions per 90 (6.23) and seventh in the league overall (33). Players she trails in total shot creating actions? Oh, just Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith, Croix Bethune, Ashley Sanchez, and Temwa Chawinga. That's nuts! She was a fourth round pick! Yates also ranks 4th among all attacking midfielders and wingers in American Soccer Analysis' xPass over expectation metric, which measures how likely a pass is to be completed relative to circumstance. It is important to note that this is cumulative metric rather than simply just "pass percentage," a metric I abhor because it doesn't tell you anything about the difficulty or importance of the pass attempted. This is particularly impressive because Yates, as mentioned, is an aggressive playmaker, meaning that her passes typically have a lower expected completion percentage than others.

Yates' stats are excellent across the board, and she's an immensely fun player to watch. It's hard to find any underlying metric that doesn't support her case for being one of the best creative engines in the league. Next time you watch an Orlando game, keep an eye on her.

Ashley Sanchez, North Carolina Courage

There was NO CHANCE I was going to write this type of article without including Sanchez. Zero. None.

I must admit that it's been a tough couple of years for us card-carrying members of the Sanchez hive. With the disclaimer that I have grown to LOVE Morgan Weaver, I admit to having spent the first two+ seasons of her career wishing the Thorns had instead drafted Sanchez, the silky-smooth ten out of UCLA. Sanchez was mostly good for the Washington Spirit over her three years in DC, but it always felt like she was underutilized. Part of this was Sanchez's own fault: She is, to use a slightly derogatory pundit-ism, a luxury player in the truest sense. She's not going to do much outside of create. She's not going to chase back and put in a thumping tackle. She loves herself some unnecessary flair. She'll disappear for stretches when her team doesn't have the ball.

Sanchez's general lack of top-end league production in the Mark Parsons diamond and a influx of talented young(er) attacking midfielders took her right out of a USWNT team pool that she had struggled to put herself into in the first place. Neither Parsons or former USWNT manager Vlatko Andonovski could really figure out how to get the Sanchez's creative engine purring. Both favor rigid, wing-heavy attacking systems that constricted Sanchez's ability to create out of structure, and a restricted Sanchez is not the best Sanchez. Even under Parsons, Sanchez was still reasonably productive, finishing 4th in the league among midfielders and wingers in G+, the most holistic attacking metric we have available, with 4.54. Parsons' departure and the subsequent news that Barcelona manager Jonatan Giraldez would take over as Spirit manager seemed a godsend for Sanchez-ites. Surely, Giraldez's mix of creativity and structured tiki-taka would lend itself perfectly to Sanchez's skillset. Well, Giraldez and Spirit GM Mark Krikorian had other ideas. Sanchez was shockingly (and to the dismay of many, including Spirit star Trinity Rodman) was shipped to the North Carolina Courage in exchange for cash and the fifth overall pick in the 2024 NWSL draft, which turned into the runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year in Croix Bethune.

The trade surprised Sanchez as well, but it did reunite her with Courage manager Sean Nahas, with whom she had worked with nearly a decade prior during her time with the USWMT youth setup. Nahas had reportedly attempted to pry Sanchez away from the Spirit the previous season as well, but had been rebuffed. Sanchez was CLEARLY a perfect fit in the Nahas system, which is designed around the interchangeability of its midfielders. Nahas' system has structure in the sense that there is clear direction going to each player, but it is naturally free-flowing. Sanchez is listed as a forward on the Courage roster, but has been given the freedom to drop deep as well. In my Courage season preview, I pondered whether Sanchez may be given the vacant striker role as a false 9, but Nahas (wisely, imo), has used her as a right-sided hybrid eight/ten.

Sanchez has, predictably, thrived under Nahas. The Courage have, also predictably, struggled as of late as their lack of true quality across their front three has finally began to haunt them, but the midfield has been arguably the best in the NWSL through nine weeks. Sanchez has already accumulated 3.02 G+ over nine games, which would put her on pace for 7.38 over the course of the previous 22 game season, and 8.72 over the current 26 game season, easily exceeding 2023's total. She has four goal contributions through 9 matches, only two fewer than her total all of 2023. Most of Sanchez's statistical profile aligns much more closely with her first two seasons in the league than her last under Parsons.

One of the most interesting statistical nuggets about Sanchez's playing style this year is her pass profile. Per fbref, Sanchez has completed 132 of 148 short passes through nine weeks. Extrapolated out through a 22 game season, Sanchez is on pace for 337 completed short passes, more than doubling her 2023 total and exceeding her previous career high -- achieved during her 2021 rookie season-- by 147 passes. It's not just the short passes, however: Sanchez is on pace to exceed her of previous high of completed medium range passes by 60 and to nearly double her high of completed long range passes. Her passing accuracy is relatively similar to previous seasons with the exception of a 15% higher rate in the short areas, which can be accounted for by a higher volume of short passes (the easiest to complete). This is down to Nahas' system, which emphasizes the slow build up and quick passes that Sanchez thrives on. A properly utilized Ashley Sanchez is one that is receiving and distributing the ball at a high rate....and that has certainly been the case so far in Cary.

Sanchez has played two roles for the Courage, generally dependent on the opponent: A rotating false nine / hybrid 10 where she and Manaka Matsukubo or Briana Pinto rotate who stays high and who drops deep. The first pass map is from Week 5 against Angel City. Sanchez's position was much more central, with the Courage concentrating play behind ACFC's single pivot. In these matches, she plays much more as a late-arriving striker in transition- Sanchez has always been an underrated fox-in-the-box type, and in the first video clip against Gotham, she finds the end of a cross and her header deflects into the path of Pinto for the finish.

Her second role --and the one she has played more frequently when the Courage are either dominating a game, in search of an equalizer, or both-- is one where she pulls wide on the right side of midfield. The pass map is from Week 2 at Utah, where the Courage fell behind early and then dominated the game trying to find a leveler. The Courage's line was so high that Sanchez played almost as inverted wingers, running overlaps with Tyler Lussi and Bianca St. Georges on the Courage right. The video clip is from a different game --vs. Seattle-- but one where Sanchez is playing a similar role. In the clip, she picks up the ball wide left, drives towards the end-line, and crosses for Tyler Lussi to tap home.

I have included two versions of Sanchez's radar chart: The first one, which compares Sanchez to other midfielders through the first 4-5 games of the season, is very Ashley Sanchez: All creation and very little else. But, when you're THIS elite at the things you're good at --namely, ball progression-- you don't really need to do that much else.

The second compares Sanchez to other wingers/attacking midfielders with a greater sample size. Like the Courage as a team, Sanchez's production has fallen off over the course of the season in key areas. The Courage's lack of a central striker (or a dynamic ball-carrier cough cough Kerolin) has given them some major issues in the last four weeks against better opposition. It's a shame --though not for the rest of the league-- that the Courage neglected to bring in a Kerolin replacement with the Brazilian out for the season, and the lack of a dynamic attacker has directly caused their recent slide. Sanchez and the rest of the Courage's fleet of creative midfield options are hamstrung by the lack of a central striker. Wingers Tyler Lussi and Haley Hopkins have exceeded expectations, but they have been unable to compensate fully. The Courage SHOULD look to strengthen in the attacking areas during the summer transfer window if they wish to make a significant NWSL run. If they don't, they'll be wasting one of the best early season run from an attacking midfielder that I've seen in a while. #GiveSanchezARealStriker

HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: Weekly recaps will resume next weekend (Matchweek 11, the week of May 24)