After a summer consisting of the Olympics and whatever the Summer Cup was, we are, thank goodness, back to NWSL action. Let's get right into it.
As always, pass charts via https://btvc.beehiiv.com/p/nwsl-week-17-xg-race-charts-pass-networks-2024
Game 1: Washington Spirit 4-1 Kansas City Current
We're getting to the point of the season where there's a clear delineation between the teams fighting for the shield, those jostling for a playoff spot, and those aiming to squeeze a little bit of joy out of seasons gone wrong. Sunday morning's marquee between the Spirit of Washington DC and Current of Kansas City was one of those matches. Matches that you leave feeling different than you did before they started.
The last time the Current played an NWSL match, the result was a 2-1 loss to the Pride at CPKC stadium in a matchup of what looked at the time to be the two runaway favorites for the Shield. The two teams rounding out what's become an increasingly clear top NWSL four --Gotham and the Spirit-- looked to be close challengers, but perhaps still just below the top level exhibited by the league's top two.
Washington, who have been in good form for most of the season, look to have made that top 2 very much a top 3 under permanent manager Jonatan Giraldez, who has arrived in DC post-Olympics accompanied by his trio of summer signings Leicy Santos, Rose Kouassi, and Esme Morgan. To his credit, Giraldez has clearly realized that simply copy-pasting his tiki-taka-pure-Barca style from Catalunya to the US Capitol wouldn't work without adjusting for the increased physicality sliders the NWSL brings. The Spirit are very much not a possession team (they rank second from bottom in total touches per match and 5th in possession), and their relative PPDA shows that they they typically don't press as much as you'd think either. The Spirit play a very compact, disciplined 4-2-3-1 anchored by the best complimentary midfield duo in the league in veteran Andi Sullivan and rookie Hal Hershfelt, grind teams down, and then hit in transition via the speed of Ouleymata Sarr and Trinity Rodman, and the terrifying creativity of rookie Croix Bethune. That's not to say Washington don't keep the ball when they need to do so- They're confident in possession and typically do well to see games out when the have the lead. The fact is, however, this is not a team one would think was managed by the same guy who was in charge of Barca over the past three years, and that's a testament to the adaptability of Giraldez and his staff.
Against KC, the Spirit started in their traditional double pivot, but moved Bethune wide left to allow Santos to slot into her preferred attacking midfield role. The positions of the Spirit's attacking four are typically pretty fluid. Bethune may have been positioned on the left wing in the lineup graphic, but she spent much of her time rotating centrally to take up more familiar positions with either Sarr or LB Casey Krueger providing the width. Rodman, recognizing that she had the more attack-minded Paige Metayer filling in at RB against the ever dangerous Debinha-Temwa Chawinga combo, played admirably virtually as a second RB throughout the match. Washington isn't quite as deep as Gotham and KC, but they are about as disciplined as it gets- The ability of both Hershfelt and Sullivan to cover when the FBs jaunt upfield or track down runners (Hershfelt in particular makes better recovery runs than any other six in the league) has made the Spirit much more sturdy than in years past. Look how deep Rodman (typically a RW) played throughout this match compared to Krueger (a LB) on the opposite side. That is intentional, situational coaching playing to the strengths of your personnel and responding to the dangerwomen on the opposing side.
For Kansas City, a second straight loss against a shield competitor --especially in the manner in which it happened-- raises some real questions, if not outright concerns, about what their defense and goalkeeper looks like, particularly against high-level opposition. The Current have conceded 27 goals on the season, more than the combined total of fellow contenders Gotham (13) and Orlando (12), and 8 more than the Spirit. Part of this is poor goalkeeping (AD Franch may be on the verge of being replaced by Germany vet Almuth Schult, who KC brought in over the summer) and opponents over-performing their xG (KC's cumulative xGA is actually lowest in the league), but the eye test matches the results on this one: Despite bringing in Vlatko favorite Alana Cook from the Reign to replace the injured Gabrielle Robinson, the Current are immensely vulnerable on the defensive side. Neither fullback (typically Hailee Mace and one of Izzy Rodriguez or Ellie Wheeler) are defensively proficient, both preferring to bomb forward. Teams like Washington and Orlando have and will continue take advantage.
The other major concern for KC is the departure of teenage six Claire Hutton for the U-20 World Cup. Whether the Current drop Lo Labonta back into the six and play a more traditional double pivot, or use one of Desiree Scott or Bailey Feist as a direct replacement for Hutton, they will sorely miss the teen's bulldog-ish athleticism and coverage. Their league-best attack will like be able to compensate for the month Hutton is gone, but any slip up will see them slide further behind Orlando and Washington, with a nearly fully-healthy Gotham rapidly appearing in their rear-view mirror. I don't want to completely overreact to a few poor performances by KC, but the NWSL is so damn competitive that a month of less than perfect performances may turn into a shield-losing stretch. We'll see!
As far as the game itself goes, Washington established an early two goal lead inside 14 minutes courtesy of a lung busting 70 yard run by Metayer followed by a near post finish France probably should have done better with, before Bethune matched the all time NWSL single season assist number with 10 (yes, you read that correctly) by sliding a ball through for Sarr to finish past Franch. The early two goal lead allowed the Spirit to pack it in, making it hard for Chawinga and the rest of the Current front line to find the space they usually do. The inability to break down the Spirit's low block was reminiscent of the second half against 10-woman Orlando back in July: Andonovski doesn't seem to have an answer for when the Current don't take the lead and force their opponents to push forward and leave space for the Current front three to run into, and the Spirit were hardly troubled for most of the match, with Santos adding a late 4th on debut after Chawinga had pulled one back for the Current.
Quick Hits:
Spirit mainstay Ashley Hatch's fate was spelled out very clearly in the first months of the new regime, but the chances of her ending up in Utah sometime between October and March 2025 have to be moving into the minus odds at this point. With the additions of Kouassi and Santos, she simply will not be seeing the field anymore.
For those who haven't watched a lot of the various iterations of the Spirit since she was drafted, Rodman's defensive importance was brought to a global stage during the Olympics. At risk of turning myself into the "I was told Steph Curry couldn't shoot threes" twitter meme (for the less chronically online, arguing against a non-existent strawman), Rodman has very clearly joined her Olympic frontline mates in superstardom. She doesn't necessarily accumulate the counting stats of Swanson or Smith, but she's just as much of a star.....and at just 22, is only getting better.
New KC signing Jereko made a late appearance and looked bright. Don't be surprised if she takes that right wing spot from Michelle Cooper sooner rather than later.
Washington's weak point, if they have one, is Anaig Butel's CB spot. I guess that's why they brought in Esme Morgan from Manchester City!
Tara McKeown, on the other hand, continues to earn her flowers, doing about as an impressive a job against Temwa Chawinga as any CB has done all season.
Game 2: Utah Royals 2-1 Bay FC
From the heights of the top of the table clash between KC and Washington, we travel West and back in time to Friday night's, well, slightly lower in the table clash between Utah and Bay FC.
The Royals have had one of the more confusing expansion seasons in recent memory. After hiring club legend Amy Rodriguez as its first manager, Utah's FO proceeded to assemble arguably the worst NWSL roster of the modern era, going into the season with a group of players heavily favored to claim the Wooden Spoon. It went pretty much as expected: Through 14 weeks, Utah sat bottom of the table having accumulated a grand total of seven points and proceeded to unceremoniously fire Rodriguez after arguably its best performance of the season, a 0-0 home draw against Portland that saw them mostly outplay the visiting Thorns. Many in the NWSL world correctly called out Utah's FO for failing to back their young manager: What was Rodriguez meant to do --no offense intended-- with a front line of Hannah Betfort, Paige Monaghan, and an out of position rookie Aly Sentnor? A rotating midfield cast of Agnes Nyberg, Dana Foederer, and a mostly out of position Amandine Henry?
Since firing Rodriguez, Utah has decided that they do, in fact, have some money; and should, in fact, be spending it. After bringing in young Spanish hybrid 6/CB Ana Tejada from Basque club Real Sociedad in early June just before firing Rodriguez, the Utah FO has made the necessary additions to an anemic attack, bringing in veteran Japanese international Mina Tanaka and out of favor Canadian winger Cloe Lacasse from Arsenal. To supplement the midfield, they added veteran Spanish CM Claudia Zornoza, formerly of Real Madrid. There are, perhaps, questions about the age profile of their three big signings in the long term -- Tanaka and Zornoza are both 33 and Lacasse is 31-- but there is no doubt about the talent deficit adding the three internationals helps to address. The only question is why they waited so long to do it. Did they think that they could get away with a draft-built roster with no stars? Did they underestimate the pace at which the NWSL has grown? Regardless, the timing of it all is brutal on Rodriguez who I'm sure likely (and rightfully) feels betrayed by her former front office.
One key benefit of the Tanaka and Lacasse signings is that it will allow them to more consistently drop Sentnor --who dominated the Summer cup and won both the NWSL player and rookie of the month awards-- back into her preferred ten role. Sentnor's versatility has been a boon for a Utah squad that has had to shift things around frequently in order to generate goals. She's played all across the front line and attacking midfield in the first four months of her fledgling career, playing as a pure nine, on the left wing, or at the ten depending on who Utah has played around her. The presence of Tanaka on the right and Lacasse on the left will see Sentnor drop deeper into the role she occupied more frequently while at UNC. Against Bay, Monaghan started in place of Lacasse on the left, with Tanaka making her debut to the right of striker Hannah Betfort. One of the reasons Sentnor has remained so effective despite often playing across the front line is that she wants to take up those positions. She isn't a horizontal 10 like an Ashley Sanchez, she's a field stretching 10 with pace that wants to break lines with the ball. This is shown in the pass map below- She spent most of the game as the highest Royal on the field.
Utah's opponent on the night has quietly underperformed their preseason hype pretty significantly. The loss of captain Alex Loera to an ACL tear hasn't helped things, but the real issue has been that a majority of their big signings have simply not shown up. Rachael Kundananji has been the exception. She has only four goal contributions on the season, but she is in the 90th percentile or better in individual categories like self-created shots, successful dribbles, and carries into the penalty box. In fact, Kundananji's self-creation is a good indicator of how broken Bay has been as a squad for most of the season. They play the same style every week under manager Albertin Montoya -- the pass map looks like a default 4-3-3 you'd be likely to see in a video game-- but it just hasn't yielded the type of results that made them the NWSL's preseason darlings after signing international attackers Kundananji, Deyna Castellanos, and Asisat Oshoala.
Many of Bay's struggles come down to two related problems:
Their midfield simply isn't very good, with Castellanos in particular under-performing expectations. You can't run a 4-3-3 --in AND out of possession-- with a midfield this (see above) stretched. The lack of general presence from both Bailey and Boade overburdens Pickett to an unsustainable degree....hence Bay's league-worst defensive record.
Oshoala has been isolated as a result, and hasn't produced with the limited opportunities she has gotten. Let's take a look at her radar charts from 2022 (with the best team in the world, Barcelona), and 2024 (with Bay FC). Not pretty reading!
Oshoala has never been a self-creator (though she's had to do a little more if it this season), and she finished at an absolutely unsustainably elite rate during her time at Barcelona. Her poor output (just two non-penalty goals in nearly 1200 minutes) simply isn't good enough, even if it hasn't been entirely her fault, especially for an expansion team that hasn't had the time to build up the kind of depth other NWSL squads have. Montoya even went as far as to start Castellanos as a false nine in place of Oshoala in the hope of getting his striker more involved in the play.
The game was relatively dull in the first half, neither team creating much. Utah struggled to get anything going down the left side, moving most of their attacking efforts through Tanaka's right wing. Monaghan, who did eventually give Utah a 1-0 lead, was completely ineffective for most of the match, Sentnor frequently pulling out wide left to offer Utah a second outlet. Bay struggled to break down Utah's Spanish double pivot of Tejada and Zornoza, with 8s Dorian Bailey and Tess Boade stifled at every turn. Castellanos didn't really actually play as a false 9, and failed to get involved much as a result- One of my biggest tactical complaints about Bay FC throughout the season is that Castellanos --an out and out 10-- simply doesn't fit very well into Montoya's preferred single-pivot 4-3-3 because it doesn't play with a floating ten. Kiki Pickett has done an admirable job filling in for Loera at the six (I'd argue she has been Bay's best player outside of Kundananji), but she hasn't been able to elevate the play of the two 8s in front of her.
Once Utah scored two goals early in the second half, it was game over. The Royals didn't really threaten after their second goal, but Bay's huffing and puffing yielded naught but a late Kundananji consolation. The xG chart doesn't really feel like it gives Utah justice: They looked the better side for a majority of the match, and were dangerous despite not creating many clear cut chances. Mostly, however, they look sturdy and well-disciplined: Tejada and Zornoza give them a composure and solidity in midfield that has been lacking for much of the season. Rodriguez was perhaps unfairly let go, but there is an undeniable new energy around the Royals under interim manager Jimmy Conraets (Is this just Belgian Jimmy Conrad?). Whether Lacasse (who made an impressive 30 minute cameo) and Tanaka can provide enough juice for Utah to make a late run up the table, we shall see.....but their performance against Bay built on a solid summer cup and will, at least, elevate them above "laughing stock" territory for the time being.
Quick Hits:
Young Spaniard Tejada looks to be quite the player. She's a little slow on the back foot in midfield -- a function of being a natural CB-- but she has an excellent passing range and really snaps into a tackle.
Rookie Utah RB Olivia Griffiths also appears to be a nice little player- She had more highly touted Bay LB Savy King pushed back into her own half for much of the match.
Utah pressed in a front two with Hannah Betfort and Sentnor chasing relentlessly. Betfort is clearly the least skilled of the front four (come home Ashley Hatch, come home!), but she did some tremendous defensive work for Utah in this one.
Bay has a GK problem. Veteran Katelyn Rowland has began to make at least one absolutely jaw-dropping error every match, and they just sold Canadian Lysianne Proulx to Juventus.
I have to think a top level 8 is on the shopping list for Bay FC this summer. In fact, I'm not sure how they went into the season without one, knowing the style preferred by Montoya.
Game 3: Houston Dash 0-1 Orlando Pride
At this point, I'm not really sure what the Houston Dash are. Their brand new coach has been out for months with a mysterious illness, their GM was just let go, and the team itself sits second from bottom with an attendance record matching their on-field performance. After a flurry of early-season transfers -- bringing in Swedish international Elin Rubensson, Brazilian international Tarciane, and former Angel City defender Paige Nielsen-- a squad badly in need of reinforcements has seen nothing but tumbleweeds in the Houston desert in what has been an active summer window for much of the league.
You have to feel for interim manager Ricky Clarke. The Scot, whose virtues were extolled loudly and at length by the loquacious color commentator Lianne Sanderson throughout Friday evening's match against the Pride, has inherited a squad with holes nearly everywhere. 2023's league best defense has, relatively speaking, not been their biggest problem. After a bit of a rough start, Tarciane (more on her in a bit) has looked very much the star defensive addition Houston thought they were getting when they signed her from Corinthians for an immense fee back in April. Nielsen has provided a sturdy veteran presence next to the Brazilian in Houston's back three, while the ever-present Natalie Jacobs has been more than serviceable.
Houston's problems are more of the, well, everything else variety. Clarke hasn't yet figured out the wingback conundrum. Rookie Avery Patterson has been good --she was the most dangerous Dash attacker on the night-- but RWB has been an issue. Rubensson, presumably signed to add stability to the Dash midfield, started there Friday. Rubensson has played RB sporadically over the course of her career, but she's not a wing back, lacking both the pace and the desire to get in behind needed to properly play the position. Sure, she is slightly duplicative in a midfield centered around Canadian vet Sophie Schmidt, but Houston should be playing their top-end talent in the proper position. Yuki Nagasato is a fine player, but she simply cannot be an NWSL team's primary playmaker in the year 2024. Across the frontline, Andressa and Diana Ordonez --who looks absolutely enraged 90% of most Houston matches and, somewhat ironically, would absolutely fit her former side North Carolina like a glove-- can't seem to get out of each other's way, while Barbara Olivieri flits around trying to find usually non-existent space. I mean, what exactly is going on here?
To give you a taste of just how bad it's been for the Dash in 2024:
Houston has scored 10 goals --yes, 11 goals-- through 17 games, second worst in the league.
Worse still, their cumulative open play xG is a league-worst 9.4. No other team in the league has a cumulative open play xG lower than Utah's 11.56.
Ordonez has managed four goals on the season. Second on the list? Six different players with one.
Their defense, which I described earlier as "not their biggest problem," has nonetheless conceded the second most cumulative xG in the league. It could be about to get even worse!
With all that said, Houston, through a combination of luck and Orlando being not quite at their best, had a golden opportunity to steal a point when Andressa clanged the miss of the season off the near post on an open header from 5 yards out. Orlando never really felt like they were challenged until Andressa's miss, however; comfortably outnumbering Houston's two women midfield. Orlando quite literally did not use the wings: Remember earlier when I talked about Kiki Pickett isolated in Bay's lone six role? Well, what poor Sophie Schmidt had to deal with was far worse. Orlando packed the midfield, overrunning Houston for much of the match. If not for a mostly extremely impressive performance by Tarciane on Banda (truly, the best a CB has played against the MVP frontrunner all season) and a couple dreadful misses by Orlando, this could have been a lot uglier. Orlando wasn't the well-oiled machine it has been through most of 2024, but it was mostly very comfortable for Seb Hines' side, Summer Yates scoring the game winner on a inch-perfect lofted through ball from Angelina midway through the second half.
Quick Hits:
Rubensson made her first start since May 9th for the Dash.
I was researching stats on Houston's fbref page and noticed that GK Jane Campbell is just 29....though the amount of shot stopping she's had to to do makes it feels like she's had a career worth of work.
LB Carson Pickett made her second Orlando debut late in the second half. It remains unclear whether she will take Kerry Abello's place immediately, or whether she will be used as defensive cover for the remainder of the season.
Tarciane looks a more confident player after her run to Silver in Paris. Banda got her a few times, but she did excellently to win (read: con) free kicks by getting the right side of Banda in 1v1s.
Player of the Week: Alyssa Thompson, Angel City FC
Goal of the Week: It was ultimately (correctly) ruled an own goal, but let's give it to Seattle teenager Emeri Adames who struck the Megan Rapinoe celebration in front of her idol after nodding a 97th minute header off the post before the ball rebounded off of hapless NCC keeper Casey Murphy into the net for Seattle's winner on Sunday night.
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