NWSL Week 12 Recap- The downfall of the Reign and Courage

Thanks as always to @nwslStat and Andre Carlisle's newsletter (https://btvc.beehiiv.com/p/nwsl-week-12-xg-race-charts-pass-networks-2024) for the data vis.

Game 1: Kansas City Current 5-2 Seattle Reign

I have discussed the myriad issues with the two SoCal squads over the past two weeks, but neither comes close to the 2024 Seattle Reign. They have accumulated one point from five matches. They have been conceding goals like they don't know how to defend. Laura Harvey looks like she has run out of ideas has utterly failed to elevate below-average roster talent.

Seattle played a half-decent first half against Kansas City, looking to better the 0-0 draw (the one point gained in their last five) achieved at Lumen field five weeks ago. For a while, it looked like they might do just that, leading 2-1 at the break courtesy of a brace from the finally-healthy Jordyn Huitema. Harvey finally gave in and switched from her preferred 4-2-3-1 to what essentially played as a 4-4-2, Bethany Balcer allowed to play next to Huitema in the more central positions she prefers. Harvey was, understandably, set up to counter in two banks of four, leaving Ji So Yun on the bench on her return from international duty. Except.....well, the Reign haven't really played a 4-4-2 yet, and it showed. Wide midfielders Latsko and King were isolated and barely touched the ball. Central midfielders Angharad James and Jess Fishlock were, as they have been all season, overwhelmed. Seattle were bailed out by Huitema who took her two goals well, but they created less than 0.25 xG aside from the two efforts that ended in the back of the net. The Current dominated the entire field throughout, despite trailing 2-1 at halftime: The field control map below is one of the most dominant you'll see all year.

So, what has gone wrong this season for Seattle in contrast to previous years where the struggle ball tactics were still in place, but the results were undeniably better? Seattle has finished no lower than 5th in the league since their inaugural season in 2023, and has finished fourth, first, and second over the last three years under Harvey.

Let's take a look under the hood:

1. The signs of the downfall on the offensive side of the ball were there last season. In 2023, Seattle finished 4th from the bottom in both cumulative xG cumulative non-penalty xG and cumulative xG.... and it looked worse most of the time. Reliant on an about-to-be-retired Megan Rapinoe, the aging Jess Fishlock, and the crosses of Sofia Huerta, Seattle just about scraped by, generating 1.27 goals per 90 minutes and 1.10 npxG/90. In 2024, Seattle is averaging just 1 G/90 and 1.06 npxG/90.

2. A stable core, good defensive shape, and high-level a high-level back line can go along ways towards covering up an anemic offense, and that is certainly what happened last season in Seattle. In 2023, Seattle allowed just 1.14 xG/90, good for 2nd in the league. So far in 2024, the Reign are allowing 1.51 xG/90, which is tied for 5th worst in the league. There are reasons for the fall-off: CB Alana Cook, the lynchpin of Seattle's defense, has fallen off a cliff this season. Seattle legend Lauren Barnes is aging. The central midfield, usually so sturdy, has keenly felt the age of Fishlock and the injuries to Quinn. Because the Reign's attackers are so limited, their FBs consistently are pushed high up the field to generate offense, leaving gaps on the wings for the opposition to exploit.

3. The Reign can't get the ball behind the opposing defense. I highlighted the obvious lack of pace on their forward line in my season preview, and that lack of speed has been a major issue for them so far. Below are the pass maps for Sunday's game: Seattle could not get the ball down the wings in behind in any meaningful way, whereas the Current consistently peppered the wings using the pace of Temwa Chawinga and Michelle Cooper. The Reign rank second from bottom in league in take-ons leading to shot attempts with just six throughout the entirety of 2024. For reference, the Pride have 28, the Thorns have 21, and the Current have 20.

Sometimes, soccer is as simple as needing game breakers in your front three to make a play for you ....and Seattle simply don't have any.

I don't have much more to say about the Current who said "enough is enough," in the second half, though more credit should probably be going to manager Vlatko Andonovski who, at this time last year, was about to embark upon a destined-to-fail World Cup journey with the USWNT. The Current are not top of the table, but they are, by almost every metric, the best team in the NWSL. Some stats:

• KC's xG difference (generally the best predictor of overall team quality) is currently +16.5. For reference, the second best xGD in the league (Washington) is +7.7.

• Prefer actual goals? Well, KC leads the league in both goals scored (31) and goal difference (+14).

• The Current are the only team in the league with three players (Chawinga, Bia Zaneratto, and Vanessa Dibernardo) each with more than four goals and four assists each.

In other words: They're really damn good and should be clear favorites for the Shield imo.

Quick Hits:

• Vlatko's most impressive feat with the Current is how seamlessly he has integrated his new players. Bia and Chawinga are top of the list, but rookies Ellis Wheeler and teen sensation Claire Hutton have been crucial pieces to KC's early season dominance.

• Seattle will, at least, be encouraged by Huitema's performance. They need her goals, and badly.

• *Whispers* Is Harvey on the hot seat? Should she be?

• I have sympathy for the (five or so) Reign fans for the drawn out, seemingly never-ending sale. I have to imagine it's impacting the ability to bring in new players, much like it did for the Thorns over the past two years.

• KC's attacking roster talent is unbelievable, but their achilles heal will be their defense, particularly if Gabbie Robinson's injury --still no updates!-- is as bad as it appeared. Brazilian defender Lauren will need to step up.

• Lo Labonta remains celebration queen (no, I will not use the term "celly") with Dirty Dancing lift after her 67th minute PK.

Game 2: Portland Thorns 1-0 North Carolina Courage

While Wake Med Soccer Park was occupied by the massive 7v7 tournament ultimately won on the women's side by the U.S Women, the venue's usual tenants visited Portland to take on the Thorns in front of a raucous Pride-night crowd of 22K at Providence Park.

The Courage are in free-fall. After dropping Saturday's match against the Thorns 1-0, Sean Nahas' squad have lost five of six, their only victory coming at home against the hapless Utah Royals. Over the six game stretch, the Courage have scored a total of two (!) goals and failed to register a single game xG higher than 0.8 in four of the six games, managing a downright pathetic 0.28 xG Saturday night. Even in their singular win against Utah, the Courage only managed one goal from an expected three.

via @chris_awk

The good news for the Courage is that the problem --lack of dynamic attackers-- is clear for the world to see and very solvable. The bad news is that everyone and their mother could have predicted the issue in the preseason with Brazilian winger Kerolin out for season and no (literally zero!) strikers on the roster. The Courage remain, as ever under Nahas, a smooth, cohesive side through the defense and midfield. They were frustrated Saturday by an unusually sturdy Thorns defensive midfield and backline which were allowed to defend from a compact base because of how little pressure the Courage put on the wings. The passing chart below is, frankly, pretty bizarre: The two players who spent the most time high up the pitch were wingbacks Bianca St. Georges and Tyler Lussi. The Courage, who have always built out of a back three anyhow, have virtually switched to a full-on 3-4-2-1, with their jumble of central midfielders and forwards packed into the center of the field.

The Thorns did, to their credit, do an excellent job of keeping the Courage in front of them. Even with anchor Sam Coffey sustaining a worrying foot injury 15 minutes into the first half, the double pivot of Jessie Fleming and Hina Sugita worked tirelessly to disrupt the typically connected Courage central four. Ashley Sanchez, Denise O'Sullivan, Meredith Speck, and Narumi Miura struggled to get anything going all night long, and without Feli Rauch in the game until late, the Courage wide players were almost completely ineffective. After getting a little bit of joy versus Thorns left back Marie Müller in the game's early stages, St. Georges was nullified for most of the match, while Lussi was nearly non-existent against the pace of Nicole Payne on the Courage left side. Given the lack of aerial options on the Courage roster, Nahas' decision to switch to a system reliant on wingbacks for service was a confusing one. On the rare occasion St. Georges did get behind the Thorns' backline, her crosses into the box were easily dealt with by Thorns CBs Kelli Hubly --who had an excellent, if mostly unchallenged match-- and Becky Sauerbrunn, who were never likely to be troubled in the air by Haley Hopkins, Sanchez or Speck. On the left, Lussi hardly had a sniff.

The Thorns didn't do much better in their own attacking sequences, generating just over one npxG (non penalty xG) of their own. The lack of dynamism in the Thorns' front three has been noticeable since Morgan Weaver went on the 45 day injured list with a knee injury. With only Janine Beckie and rookie Payton Linnehan among rostered healthy wingers, coach Rob Gale has alternated between moving Sophia Smith to the wing to giver either Ana Dias or Christine Sinclair starts, or, as he did Saturday, moving Olivia Moultrie out to the wing. Gale is yet to start both Linnehan and Beckie together, perhaps wishing to keep one of his two wingers as an option off the bench while allowing him to start both Moultrie and Jessie Fleming in the same eleven.

Moultrie, through no fault of her own, is simply not an effective winger. She doesn't have the requisite pace to get in behind and her best trait --roving around the middle of the field to create for teammates-- is limited when she gets parked on the wing. Sam Coffey's injury allowed Moultrie to shift into a more traditional ten role with Fleming dropping deeper and Beckie coming on to replace the Thorns' injured starting six.

Despite the shift, Sophia Smith remained almost bizarrely isolated from both the Thorns' midfield and her front line partners. The pass network below should be taken with a grain of salt --Linnehan and Beckie switched sides, making their average position appear more central than it was-- but neither player was able to join Smith on her frequent solo runs into the Courage half. Smith frequently picked up the ball inside her own half and drove forward, only to be swarmed by Courage defenders with her teammates lagging behind the play.

Some of this is on Smith. She still has a tendency to play too vertically too often, dislikes waiting for her team to catch up to her, and occasionally forces passes or dribbles down dead ends as a result of her frustration. The much bigger issue is that despite their hot streak, the Thorns have only looked fully cohesive in fits and starts. Their lack of pace on the wings means that Smith is often isolated high up the field, and coach Rob Gale, despite his stated preference for possession soccer, has his team playing a primarily counterattacking style against the league's better teams despite his team's severe lack of pace outside of his superstar number nine. Linnehan, easily the second most pacy of the Thorns' attacking triumvirate, struggled with many of the same decisions Smith did, frequently giving the ball away with a lack of options in front of her.

The Thorns are a roster built to play through the middle and have the personnel to do so, making their creation splits consistently confounding. Only 9% of their passes into the final third came through middle; with most of their attack coming via Smith or Linnehan pulling out wide on the counter. Some of this can be attributed to their opposition: The Courage are notorious for their side-to-side keep ball- based slow-paced build; making a counter-attacking tactic the default for many of their opponents. Even with the Courage's style caveat, it remains puzzling that neither former coach Mike Norris or current manager Gale has figured out how to utilize the tremendously talented midfield of Coffey (the USWNT's starting six), Moultrie (one of the most talented young midfielders in the league), Fleming (the CWNT captain), and Hina (arguably the most skilled of the bunch). It is one of the best arguments those of us not fully convinced by Gale's tactical nous use to argue that an external hire with a set philosophy would be the best path forward for the Thorns.

Quick Hits:

• Marie Müller continues to impress with her seemingly endless motor and on-ball ability. As Gale mentioned while waxing lyrical about Müller in the post-game presser, it seems a matter of time before the 23 year old German gets an international call-up.

• Sophia Smith was sent off (and went viral for) appearing to scoop the ball under her own bench in the last minutes of extra time. It was unwise of Smith to touch the ball given the erratic "pick me" nature of ref Danielle Chesky, but I don't believe it was intentional. Regardless, it is unlikely her yellow --her second of the match for time wasting-- will be rescinded, meaning she is likely to miss next week's derby against the anemic Reign in Seattle.

• Speaking of Saturday's referee: Chesky has been among the worst referees in the league throughout her tenure. She consistently fails to protect players, is remarkably inconsistent, and has a nasty tendency to make the game about herself. This league would be better without her style of refereeing.

• It's worth reiterating confusion over Nahas' use of wingbacks given how narrow the Courage play. We'll see if it sticks.

• Linnehan didn't have her best game going forward, but she was excellent in the press, consistently winning the ball in her off Courage midfielders in her typically persistent nagging style.

• Coffey's injury, though potentially a disaster for both the Thorns and the USWNT, did allow Fleming to play a more natural eight position next to Hina, and locks the Thorns into the three-woman midfield of Fleming, Hina, and Moultrie.

Game 3: San Diego Wave 1-1 Orlando Pride

Friday Night's (Amazon) prime time matchup between the Wave and Pride was one of teams going in opposite directions. Seb Hines' Pride came out of the international break unbeaten at the top of the NWSL table and riding a league record eight game winning streak. Casey Stoney's Wave, on the other hand, entered the match with just one win in five and, as discussed at length in last week's column, fourth from the bottom in goals per 90 and goals scored. Stoney wasn't yet on the hot seat per say, but the typically stone-faced manager has looked even more grumpy than usual while hunkered over her cooler.

Fortunately for Stoney and the Wave, the Pride's starting eleven was missing a number of key contributors as Hines opted to rest all three of his returning Brazilian internationals Marta, Adriana, and Rafaelle, with the latter two not even making the game day roster. With Brazilian number four and starting six Angelina still out with a knee injury and Summer Yates only healthy enough to make the bench, Hines elected to trade his usual 4-2-3-1 for a 4-4-2 that screamed "we'll be alright with a point." With Rafaelle out and Yates and Marta stuck to the bench, Hines went with rookie Cori Dyke at left midfield in front of a makeshift back line of Kylie Strom, Kerry Abello, Emily Sams, and Brianna Martinez.

The Wave continued last week's press against Orlando early, the Pride struggling to play through without Marta and Yates on the field as outlets. The Wave's shape oscillated between a 4-3-3 --with Savannah McCaskill and Jaedyn Shaw as dual eights-- and a 4-4-2 which saw Shaw step high on the shoulder of the returning Alex Morgan when the Wave possessed in the Pride half. At times, Morgan and Shaw were almost on top of each other; the teen looking to play intricate combos through the Pride defense.

If you are a Stoney detractor, her inability to get the most out of her most technically skilled players would be the first argument to make. San Diego's inability to get the most out of Shaw has been a talking point of mine -- and others-- throughout the back end of last season and the start of 2024. Stoney has played Shaw at every position except the one (the ten) we know she excels at, and Shaw's underlying metrics have slipped as a result. Shaw is still a dangerous player who has at least one or two jaw-dropping moments per match, but she hasn't impacted the game at a high enough level for the Wave. Shaw has just one non-PK goal and one assist in ten matches played thus far in 2024, but more importantly ranks in the 48th percentile (or much worse) in metrics she should thrive in: She is 48th percentile in progressive passes and successful take-ons, and just 19th percentile in progressive carries. She's still talented enough that the few opportunities she does get often turn into chances, but it hasn't been good enough for a player among the most explosive young talents in the league.

Perhaps more concerning for the Wave given the $500,000 price tag they paid for her are the early returns on winger Maria Sanchez. Sanchez has been outright invisible through most of her first seven matches as a member of the Wave. She has not recorded a goal contribution thus far, but even more concerningly has only recorded five progressive carries and eleven progressive passes through her seven matches played, good for an average of 0.7 and 1.6 per match respectively. There is a little bit of small sample size theatre at play as she adjusts to her new surroundings, but these per match averages pale in comparison to her 2023 per match averages of 2.4 and 2.7. Friday's match was a good encapsulation of her early struggles in San Diego: Sanchez failed to get involved throughout the match -- finishing with the worst G+ rating of any Wave player-- as San Diego instead ran their offense primarily down rookie Mya Jones' right side, 48% of final third passes occurring on the right wing. It's still early in Sanchez's SD career, but the return on investment has simply not been there yet.

From a Pride perspective, it was "job done." After a typically assertive Barbra Banda break down the right side led to an outrageous flick from Julie Doyle to make it 1-0, the Pride were largely swarmed by San Diego until late in the match. Without a midfield connector until Yates and Marta arrived on the scene late in the second half, the Pride relied on the searing Pace of Banda and strike partner Ally Watt to generate opportunities. With the Wave swapping their double pivot for the single-pivot Danielle Colaprico, the Pride were mostly happy to sit back and look for their pacy duo on the counter. The Wave completed 94 passes in the final third to Orlando's 34, and while many of the Wave's attacks were relatively tame, it kept the ball away from Orlando's dangerous attackers.

Banda was brought off at half time for the second straight match (no injury was mentioned) and the Wave immediately took control of the match, just as the Thorns had done in the second half against Orlando two weeks prior. After the Wave found an equalizer in the 62nd minute courtesy of substitute McKenzy Doniak, Stoney elected to rest internationals Shaw, Morgan, and Sanchez just four minutes later. The Wave continued to press forward for the following 15 minutes --Sofia Jakobson missing a point blank header in the 72nd minute that would have given the Wave the lead-- but it was the Pride who had the better of the last 10 minutes with Marta and Yates beginning to assert themselves. The game ultimately finished 1-1, probably a fair result given the chances created.

Quick Hits:

• I have mentioned Hines' elevating coaching in prior recaps, but it's worth mentioning that many key pieces for Orlando this season --particularly the duos of Abello and Strom, and Haley McCutcheon and Doyle-- are holdovers from the previous era of Orlando mediocrity. Credit to the players themselves, of course, but Hines has been a godsend.

• Speaking of McCutcheon, who not only has been a crucial and versatile piece at RB and CM for the Pride, but doesn't have an fbRef page for some reason, she executed one of the most absurd showcases of fitness I've seen in a while, pressing SD GK Kailen Sheridan high in the 90th minute before sprinting 60 yards back the other direction to take the ball off the feet of an SD attacker.

• Colaprico was overwhelmed defensively at times at the base of the Wave's 4-3-3. Not the most physically gifted, Colaprico did a solid job but struggled to cope with the physicality and speed of the Pride's attackers. Emily Van Egmond, who entered the match late, would seem to be a better option if Stoney sticks with the single pivot.

• Shout out to Wave rookie Mya Jones, who has apparently won the right wing position ahead of Doniak, Kyra Carusa, and Sofia Jakobson. Jones is a lot of determination and running without much end product at the moment, but getting a rotation player in the third round can only be considered a win for the Wave.

Player of the Week: Temwa Chawinga, Kansas City Current

Goal of the Week: This delightful Wrigley Field curler by the rejuvenated Kiki Pickett