We continue our journey down the (projected) NWSL table with teams 5-9. Let's get right back into it:
#5 North Carolina Courage
The Courage's post-Pa*l R*ley transformation from an eminently hateable, all-powerful soccer death star into a lovable underdog with an excellent coach and arguably the best scouting department in the league has been an underrated NWSL storyline. In a way, it's understandable: Wake-Med Soccer Park is the final bastion of NWSL 1.0 stadiums: An inaccessible suburban college-style stadium with a capacity of 10K (only 1.5K less than the new CPKC stadium heyo!) with the worst non-Red Stars attendance in the league at 4.5K. An away game in Cary almost feels like a preseason exhibition. The branding is boring.
On the field and in the front office, however, the Courage have transitioned into their money-ball era: After losing their 2017-2020 league-running core of Crystal Dunn, Lynn Williams, Debinha, Abby Erceg, Abby Dahlkemper, Merritt Matthias, and Jaelene Homophobe over the course of two off-seasons, the Courage FO has rebuilt their roster in coach Sean Nahas' image via a combination of astute international signings (Kerolin, Manaka Matsakubo, Narumi Miura, and Felicitas Rauch) intra-league trades (Ashley Sanchez and Emily Fox), NWSL reclamation projects (Tyler Lussi and Brianna Pinto), free agents (Bianca St. Georges and Dani Weatherholt), and draft picks (Diana Ordòñez --though she has since been traded--and Olivia Wingate).
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the Courage rebuild has been their resiliency: They hit big on 2022 6th overall pick Diana Ordóñez only to have Ordóñez request a trade to Houston for personal reasons during the 2023 offseason. The return -- $100K and the Dash's natural first round pick in both 2023 and 2024-- was good value for a player who had asked out, even given Ordóñez's age and quality The Courage appear to have missed on the 2023 pick --Canadian defender Sydney Collins, who only made four appearances for the club in 2023 and is now injured-- but most certainly did not waste the 2024 Houston first: After trading their natural 2024 first rounder (10th overall) to Chicago for 150K(!!) in allocation money, the Courage flipped $250K and the 5th overall pick in the draft for former Washington Spirit number 10 Ashley Sanchez, a move that shocked both Sanchez and her rabid cohort of stans. After losing USWNT defender Emily Fox (initially acquired in early 2023 from Racing Louisville in exchange for Erceg and Carson Pickett) to the riches of WSL club Arsenal, the Courage immediately went out and reinvested the Fox money in experienced German international RB Felicitas Rauch from Wolfsburg and former Red Stars hothead Bianca St. Georges in free agency.
If not for Kerolin becoming yet another victim of the rash of torn ACLs plaguing women's soccer, the Courage would undoubtedly have appeared in last week's Tier 1 preview. Even without Kerolin, the Courage should have enough talent to get by given the tactical edge Nahas gives them over most NWSL coaches and their midfield continuity coming into 2024.
Key Additions: Felicitas Rauch (RB), Bianca St. Georges (RWB), Ashley Sanchez (AM)
Key Losses: Emily Fox (RB), Tess Boade (F), Brittany Radcliffe (AM/F)
How they want to play:
This is the tactics section I have looked forward to writing the most. Nahas' Challenge Cup-winning (woohoo!) Courage were an incredibly malleable bunch last season, flexing into and out of 4-3-3 variants at will. I often mock how every coach say they wants to keep the ball and play pretty soccer because really, what else are they going to say? Nahas' team actually did so, and did so with some real verve. Pass maps aren't everything, but in this case, they paint the picture of the Courage's 2023 possession dominance pretty damn well. I mean, feast your eyes on those thick lines. Those dark red circles. That delightfully narrow formation.
A few things stood out watching and re-watching the Courage's 2023:
Nahas' three central midfielders interchanged so much that it was hard to pin down an exact formation. First-year Japanese midfielder Narumi Miura and all-underrated team candidate and longtime Courage veteran Irish midfielder Denise O'Sullivan were mainstays at the base of the midfield trio, with one of 18 year old Japanese talent Manaka Matsukubo or former top prospect and UNC grad Brianna Pinto rounding out the threesome. Before Manaka's summer arrival, Pinto and O'Sullivan sat either side of Narumi in what was virtually a flat 4-3-3. Manaka started all six games she played in and generally pushed higher up the field, not quite as a 10, but very evidently taking up more attacking positions than Pinto had been occupying prior to Manaka's arrival.
Pass maps are very useful tools, but it is really important to understand that they often paint an exaggerated picture of the role FBs play in the build up- The intent of most defenses is to force the ball wide and backwards, meaning that FBs are going to get a LOT of the ball whether or not the tactic is specifically to play through them. FB circles on the pass map graphics are almost always going to be the largest on the field. The important element of pass maps is the color of the circles, or how much "value" is added. With the 2023 Courage, the added value from their FBs was consistently high. Why? Because Nahas frequently inverted Emily Fox into midfield from the left and used RB Ryan Williams as an outlet on the right. This allowed the Courage to overload the midfield with a pseudo diamond and get Kerolin and the rejuvenated Tyler Lussi in space. The Courage would look to suffocate teams out of possession, lull them to sleep with passing patterns in defense and midfield, and then use Kerolin or Lussi to hit on the secondary counter.
Outside of how they plan to compensate for the loss of Kerolin, the trickiest question to answer regarding the outlook of the 2024 Courage is how significant the loss of Fox will be. Fox's exceedingly rare combination of aggression, speed, positional versatility, and technical ability has turned her into one of the best FBs in the world in her three years of pro soccer. Rauch does a lot of the same stuff Fox does, but has less athleticism and therefore fewer progressive passes and carries.
Yeah, the Courage like to keep the ball! (via https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/04/nwsl-stats-2023/)
Sanchez is my 2024 "most excited to see a new player with their new team" award winner. Underutilized year after year in DC, she fits the Courage system like a glove.....and boy, do they need her to pop immediately. With no true striker on the roster (sorry Haley Hopkins) and Kerolin likely out of the season, Nahas may elect to use Sanchez as a false 9 inside of Lussi and Hopkins/St. Georges. Doing so would make for an even more congested midfield as Sanchez likes to sit in the 10-hole and play forward, but the Courage have a barebones attacking lineup after losing Tess Boade and Brittany Radcliffe in the offseason and need someone to play a central attacking role. If Nahas is smart -- and he usually is-- this attack will focus on getting the ball to the feet of Sanchez and Manaka as much as possible and letting the two creators create. Who they create for? That, my friend, is the biggest issue.
Without Kerolin or a true number 9, the Courage lack finishing talent. Period. Full stop. There is a distinct chance that their lack of firepower completely limits their ceiling and causes them to finish on the playoff bubble. The first two games of the season are relatively kind and should tell us a little bit about how the Courage plan to adapt- At home to the Dash and on the road in Utah. I'll have my eye on the Courage: If they struggle to score goals to start the season, they may need to go out in the summer and invest in another attacker. I trust Nahas to keep the ship afloat without Kerolin, but how exactly he does it and for how long will be an interesting NWSL subplot.
Projected Starting 11:
#6 Bay FC
Ah, Bay FC. The Golden Gate Bridge imagery! The San Francisco skyline! The Presidio! Fox Theatre! Big hills and pastel row houses! Smoke drifting through Golden Gate Park while Jefferson Airp---*Holds hand to ear* Wait. They'll play in San Jose? Owned by three Santa Clara grads and an investment bank? Ah well, nevertheless!
Bay FC's much anticipated brand drop was a total dud. Like, a MAJOR dud. The crest, a combination of the Detroit Tigers emblem and the little league baseball logo of a small child, was accompanied by the most boring color palette imaginable: A dark blue and white color base partnered by a hideous red-orange trim, made even worse by a set of varsity jackets worn by the many celebrities the club used to announce player acquisitions. Truly horrible, and a major wasted opportunity. Also: Bay FC? Dumbass name imo.
This isn't a high school baseball team smh
Fortunately for Bay area woso fans, they've done pretty much everything else correctly. New GM Lucy Rushton has hired a diverse and well-rounded staff, most notably adding data analyst Arielle Dror (previously of American Soccer Analysis and creator of all those lovely pass-map graphics) as the club's Director of Data Analytics. Rushton hired longtime San Francisco resident and former Washington Spirit interim coach Albertin Montoya as the club's first manager before adding former KC head coach Matt Potter as Technical Director. In their first season, Bay FC has already established one of the largest front offices in the league and made sure to emphasize their focus on data and analytics in the decision making process.
Rushton's follow-up to her front office build-out has been......explosive, to say the least. Taking advantage of the pools of funny money given to the expansion sides amid the offseason cap explosion, Rushton started spending at a rate that made me question whether she had -- my new favorite word-- oniomania, which is an actual medical term for "shopaholic." To recap the roster build, let's make another list in place of the usual "Key Additions / Key Losses" section:
Bay FC utilized the archaic expansion draft mechanisms to extort Alex Loera, Emily Menges, and Scarlett Camberos --among others--from the helpless NWSL franchises who faced the unenviable decision of whether to give up value for protection from the uncertainty of an expansion draft or risk losing a key player.
Added the perennially underrated FB Caprice Dydasco, former Red Stars CB Kayla Sharples, FB Kiki Pickett, and GK Katelyn Rowland via free agency.
Cannonballed into the international market by spending:
$150K on former Barcelona striker and Nigerian international Asisat Oshoala, who's outrageous efficiency stats are shown in the graphic below
$250K on former Manchester City and Florida State attacking midfielder Deyna Castellanos, who famously criticized the NWSL's draft requirements on her way to Europe.
An unspecified amount on veteran Scottish Arsenal CB Jen Beattie.
A world record-shattering $785K to trigger the release clause of former Madrid CFF and Zambian striker Rachel Kundananji.
lol, lmfao even
How they want to play:
Like every coach ever, Montoya has expressed a desire to "possess the ball and play pretty soccer." Seriously, has their ever been a new NWSL coach who's stated tactical style is "park the bus and hit on the counter"?
Anyhow, Bay FC have certainly built the roster of a team that wants some flexibility, specifically in defense. The club's hefty offseason outlay on CBs, adding Beattie, Menges, Sharples, and 2nd overall pick Savvy King from UNC; makes me wonder if they might dabble in a 3-back formation with Dydasco at RWB, Dorian Bailey or Alyssa Malonson at LWB, a midfield three of Loera, Joelle Anderson, and Castellanos, and their two big-money African strikers up top. Given 3-backs tend to be naturally more transition-oriented, utilizing a 3-back system would run counter to a team that wants to possess the ball....but it does offer an interesting tactical wrinkle that Montoya may choose to explore if Bay FC find themselves behind the 8-ball on the road or protecting a lead.
I tend to think Montoya will roll with the classic single pivot 4-3-3 with Loera at the base, or invert the triangle to play a double pivot 4-3-3 with Castellanos at the 10. King is short and quick, and may be better served returning to her LB roots at the pro level. Bay FC is VERY short in the midfield and probably need to add another eight- I don't really buy that the combination of Joelle Anderson and Tess Boade have enough juice to support Loera alone in the midfield. For a team that says they want to possess the ball, the Bay FC FO has built what looks to me to be an excellent counter-attacking roster with a limited amount of central midfield quality behind Loera and Castellanos.
*The one-billion pound elephant in the room is the health of world-record signing Kundananji, who appeared to seriously injury her right knee in an international match for Zambia on February 29th. As of March 14, with the NWSL season kicking off in less than a week, Bay FC have still not released an update on Kundananji's health, though she is listed designation-free on their roster release. Bay FC have built well, but are still an expansion roster....which means they have very little depth behind their big money acquisitions. The drop-off from Kundananji to Rachel Hill or winger x is tremendous, and would likely result in them dropping a tier in my rankings. If the Zambian attacker is healthy, Bay FC are scary. If she's not, I have some major concerns.
Projected Starting 11:
#7 Kansas City Current
On October 6th 2021, just 10 months after the Long family had purchased an NWSL expansion bid and revived the corpse of the former Utah Royals franchise, the Current announced plans to construct the first women-sports specific stadium in the history of American sports. In the midst of the multiple scandals infesting the NWSL, a privately funded woso-specific stadium in a revitalized market sounded pretty damn good! The stadium, a brand new Current-specific training facility, flashy branding, and a slew of big signings including USWNT stars Lynn Williams and Sam Mewis, cumulatively sent a message to the league that the Longs and the Current meant business.
Since then, any so-inclined NWSL-proximate individual could almost literally write a book on how not to run a franchise with the Current as the subject. After both Mewis and Williams picked up SEIs before the start of 2022, coach Matt Potter led a plucky roster of underdogs on a shock run to the 2022 NWSL final before eventually losing to Portland 2-0. After adding Brazilian superstar Debinha and former Red Stars Morgan Gautrat and Vanessa Dibernardo to the roster in early 2023 with a clear intent to use the surprisingly successful 2022 as a launching pad, the Current troubles began in earnest. A quick list:
At the 2023 NWSL draft, the Current traded Williams -- still yet to play a game for KC after her 2022 SEI-- to Gotham FC for the 2nd overall pick in the draft, used on winger Michelle Cooper out of Duke. Williams was publicly blindsided by the move, and the trade has, to say the least, been a catastrophe on the field. Williams quickly became a lynchpin of the Gotham team that went on to win the 2023 NWSL title, and Cooper had an underwhelming rookie season.
In March 2023, Current 3rd round draft pick MyKiaa Minnis accused the franchise of mistreatment after she was drafted. Minnis stated that the Current provided no communication after the draft, gave no financial or in-person support, and then waived her without any communication from the coach or team management.
After the Current started the 2023 season with three straight losses amid continuing bad injury luck, GM Camille Ashton rashly fired Potter with no explanation beyond "issues around his leadership and employment responsibilities." The Current would go on to finish 11th of 12 NWSL teams.
In 2024, the club traded defender and fan favorite Alex Loera to expansion side Bay FC, shocking both Loera and the fanbase. Loera added herself to the list of former players to criticize Ashton's interpersonal skills (I mean, just look at this headshot, I'm pretty sure it just fired me for taking a 31 minute lunch break), stating that she had no indication that the move was coming until it was announced.
One month before the start of the 2024 season and the opening of the new (and not nearly of sufficient capacity) stadium, the Current announced a parking plan would charge season ticket holders $800 --more than double the season ticket cost for most NWSL clubs-- on top of the price of the tickets themselves.
Begone, evil witch!
Enough about the off-field stuff, you might say. You have them 7th in your rankings! That's not too bad! What about the team? Are they good? How many terrible water-related puns can the Current's social media manager stuff into one game? Will the much-maligned USWNT-ex and brand new Current coach Vlatko Andonovski thrive, or will the Current continue to flow the wrong way? (Ha! See! I can do it too). Will the continued spending finally yield results?
Key Additions: Bia Zaneratto (F), Temwa Chawinga (F), Nichelle Prince (W)
Key Losses: Alex Loera (CM/RB), Cece Kizer (F), Morgan Gautrat (CM)
How they want to play:
New head coach Vlatko Andonovski was arguably the shining star of NWSL 1.0 coaches. In charge for four years from 2013-2017, he led the soon-to-be-defunct FCKC to back-to-back NWSL titles in 2014 and 2015 with limited roster talent, becoming known for a creative and adaptive brand of soccer. After spending 2018 in Seattle, Andonovski jumped ship for the USWNT, where, well......the less said the better. One thing --whatever level of soccer knowledge you possess-- was clear to any women's soccer fan bleeding red white and blue from 2019-2023: creative and adaptive Vlatko's USWNT teams were most certainly not.
In 2023, the Current flowed all over the place. Projected starting defenders CB Elizabeth Ball and Swedish international RB Hanna Glas both were out injured to start the season, leading to Potter and then interim coach Caroline Sjoblom to start the season in a 5-3-2 with rookie defenders Gabby Robinson and Croix Soto partnering natural FB Addyson Merrick inside of wing backs Haile Mace and Kate Del Fava. It.....didn't work. The Current conceded 20 goals in their first 6 matches, the CB trio looked like they had little idea of how to play the position, and Ashton promptly brought in Danish CB Stine Ballsiger Pedersen and young Brazilian CB Lauren in an attempt to change the Current's direction. Despite the reinforcements, it didn't really get better for KC until Sjoblom switched to a four-back with the returning Ball partnering one of Robinson, Ballsiger-Pedersen, or Lauren; allowing the Current to exert a little more control via a midfield three. This switch slowed the flow of conceded goals (the Current conceded two or more goals in a game only twice after July 1st), but did little to help the cohesion issues which plagued the Current throughout 2023.
The Current, now healthy, are a relatively deep squad, giving Andonovski some flexibility with his lineup. With the additions of Zaneratto, Chawinga, and winger Nichelle Prince he'll face a bit of an attacking conundrum: He could try a box 4-2-2-2 with Zaneratto and Chawinga forming a tol/smol attacking pairing with Prince (or Michelle Cooper) and Debinha behind them as wide 10s. He could bring one of his two international strikers off the bench, keep Debinha centrally, and play a wider 4-2-3-1 with Cooper and Prince on the wings. Or, he could do what is shown in the graphic below: Play Debinha as an inverted winger with the ever-attacking Hailie Mace as an overlapping LB, play both Chawinga and Zaneratto with Zaneratto sitting just off the back of Chawinga, and keep Prince wide right to stretch the field. The returning from injury (though still with an SEI designation entering the season) Vlatko surprisingly stated in a recent interview (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/39711654/andonovski-speaks-uswnt-world-cup-exit-return-nwsl) that he sees 18 year old Claire Hutton as his starting six, making a combo of the youngster and Canadian veteran Desiree Scott the most likely candidates to step in for the now-departed Alex Loera to provide some stability at the base of the KC midfield with the ever-present Lo Labonta playing as a shuttler.
It will be interesting (and slightly un-Vlatko like if it does happen) to see if the Current run a high press to start the season. They have both the personnel and the roster depth to execute it, but Vlatko has typically preferred to keep the ball and play a slightly more patient brand of soccer. The season will depend on:
Whether Vlatko can figure out the best use of his attacking riches.
Whether Chawinga's prolific scoring record at her past stops in China and Sweden is more than a flat-track-bully stat and fully translates to the NWSL.
Whether that still-suspect back line can stay healthy and consistent for a full season.
Whether Hutton can take on the immense responsibility of being the Current's starting 6.
Whether Scott and Glas can shed the SEI designations they enter the season with.
I bet they do figure it out to the extent that they are at least a playoff team in 2024. Vlatko has always been a "my guys" type of coach, meaning that it takes time and consistent work for his teams to figure out the style he wants to play. There is a chance that he and his coaching ability have been passed by by the growth of woso worldwide and some of the same issues he encountered with the USWNT rear their ugly heads in KC, but much like Gotham, I'm betting on the talent in KC to keep them competent.
Projected Starting 11:
#8 Washington Spirit
The American branch of the rapidly-expanding Kang dynasty has had a distinctly up and down offseason. The yellow-coated Spirit owner made her first real splash in January, convincing former FC Barcelona manger Jonatan Giraldez to swap Gaudi buildings for cherry blossoms and the Nou Camp for Audi Field. Since then, the Spirit have made some downright strange moves. On draft day, the club traded attacking midfielder and Trinity Rodman's best friend Ashley Sanchez, to the North Carolina Courage in exchange for the 5th overall pick in the 2024 draft and $250K in allocation money. On the surface --even taking into account the lawlessness of the NWSL allocation money market-- this wasn't an objectively bad deal: Sanchez, a highly rated prospect out of UCLA who had flirted with a USWNT spot since she joined the league, had underperformed for the Spirit under multiple managers. Even so, she and Rodman really were the Spirit young core. Everything the Spirit did on and off the field was centered around the two of them. The Spirit's 2021 title came on the back of the two youngsters, with the then 21-year old Sanchez scoring a delightful scooped winner in the semi against Seattle, before the duo lead the Spirit to victory in the final against Chicago. Sanchez's departure was a shock to the Spirit fanbase (and Sanchez herself), many of whom still infest the Spirit's twitter mentions begging for her return to this very day.
The Spirit used the 5th pick on talented but oft-injured Georgia attacking midfielder Croix Bethune before signing former Red Stars defender Casey Krueger in free agency. Krueger's signing was only a temporary salve to a decimated Spirit backline as ironwoman CB and long throw maestro Sam Staab was shipped off to Chicago shortly thereafter, and veteran CB Amber Brooks also left for Chicago in free agency, leaving the Spirit with only three rostered natural defenders (Krueger, Annaig Butel, and rookie Kate Wiesner) to complement converted striker Tara McKeown and natural wingers Anna Heilferty and Gabrielle Carle.
With Sanchez and Staab shipped out and no true replacements brought in (though that may change with Spirit GM Mark Krikorian teasing an international signing at the Spirit's recent media availability), the Spirit's plan has become evident: Tear the roster down to the studs and use 2024 as a year to evaluate which players on the roster have the juice to play in what will almost certainly be an entirely new tactical system under Giraldez.
Giraldez himself? Well, he won't actually arrive in DC until June after the FC Barcelona season ends. In his stead, he sends former Espanyol coach Adrián González to take on the interim duties......and possibly to weed out any other Spirit players not up to snuff.
Key Additions: Casey Krueger (RB), Croix Bethune (AM)
Key Losses: Ashley Sanchez (AM), Sam Staab (CB), Amber Brooks (CB), Dorian Bailey (RB/RM)
How they want to play:
The thing about Giraldez is that.......how to say this gently........he has never actually had to coach a team without having somewhere around 100 times the resources of his competitors. Seriously. The guy is 32 years old and the three years coaching Barcelona after taking over from former manager Lluis Cortes comprise his entire pro-level managerial career. I don't bring this up as a criticism- By all accounts, Giraldez is an excellent tactical mind who was given the Barcelona job because he played a critical role in Barcelona's tactical development over the course of Cortes' tenure. It remains notable, however, that Giraldez will be put in an unfamiliar situation where he is asked to get the most out of a less talented group for the first time.
For those of you that do not watch, or have not watched Barcelona......first go do so immediately.
Now that you're back, you probably saw that they play the most Barcelona-y of styles, a single-pivot 4-3-3 with Ballon d'Or winner Aitana Bonmati flanked by two of English six Keira Walsh, hybrid six/eight Patri Guijarro, and hybrid eight/winger Mariona Caldentey. Barcelona's well of talent is so deep that they have the luxury of being able to run out a front line with any three-woman combination of Norwegian winger and human skill-check Caroline Graham Hansen, breakout World Cup star Salma Paralluelo, 22 year old dynamo Claudia Pina, 20 year old Dutch winger Esme Brugts, former Ballon d'Or winner Alexia Putellas, and Caldentey when she doesn't play in the midfield.
Why do I bring up Barcelona's wealth of talent? Well, because the Spirit play in both a significantly more competitive league and have significantly less overall roster talent than their Catalonian counterparts. The Barcelona 4-3-3 works because Walsh and Guijarro are two of the best lone sixes in the world, freeing the two 8s to move forward and live in the opposition's half. Spirit six Andi Sullivan.......never had a Keira Walsh-level of mobility even at her best, and has gotten slower as her career has gone on. Speaking of the two 8s, the Spirit will likely roll out the duo of rookie Bethune and un-drafted FA and generally awesome story Paige Meyater. Both good players, but neither natural eights.
The most interesting aspect of the Sanchez trade is that, at least from a play-style perspective, she seemed to fit into a more technical, possession-based tactic seamlessly. It's possible that Giraldez saw her as a luxury player who is limited to a 10 role and didn't see a spot for her in a 10-less 4-3-3. It is also possible that Sanchez represented a cash cow for the Spirit and that their braintrust view Bethune and however they re-invest the 250K transfer fee as preferable to seeing what they had with Sanchez.
On the opposite end of the fit spectrum, Trinity Rodman's many talents are hardly suited to a possession-based 4-3-3. Rodman is a truly awesome player: She is the best defensive winger in the league, a relentless runner who loves a tackle and is 90th percentile or higher in most attacking statistical categories that involve going forward very fast. To be clear, Rodman is also very skilled on the ball.....but she is still best in space and hardly the sort best utilized playing tiki-taka, making Giraldez's system likely to be a major adjustment for her.
Trinity Rodman- Good player imo!
More likely than not, this season will be one of transition for the Spirit, even if 2022 Ballon d'Or winner Alexia Putellas follows her former manager to DC this summer. Giraldez's ability to adapt will be a key indicator of the Spirit's success in the short term. Will he force the same system he used in Barcelona on his Spirit team regardless of roster fit? Will he adapt to his best player's skillset and play a little more in transition? Will the Spirit go shopping in the summer to set up a playoff challenge post-Olympics? I see the Spirit starting the season slow- Players have already spoken about the adjustment to the new system and the roster is good-not-great. If the group can make that adjustment quickly and reinforcements are brought in this summer, don't be surprised if the Spirit turn it on late in the season.....but I'd still wager this season will be more of a set up for 2025, where Giraldez will have a full offseason to mold the roster in his image.
Projected Starting 11:
#9 Houston Dash
The Dash are a funny old team. They entered 2024 armed with a front line composed of formidable attacking Mexican duo Diana Ordonez and Maria Sanchez next to young English speedster Ebony Salmon after taking advantage of Ordonez's desire to move to Houston to acquire her from the Courage. The on-paper front line conjured images of the silky Sanchez whipping crosses onto the head of Ordonez, talented FB duo Caprice Dydasco and Michelle Alozie flying down the wings, and the Dash counterattacking and pressing opposing teams to death in the oppressive Houston sun.
And.....none of that happened. A lot of it was down to former coach Sam Laity, who was almost bizarrely pragmatic stylistically and showed little sign of understanding how to best utilize his talented front line. The Dash scored 12 goals in their first 13 games, switched into and out of a three back, and looked out of sorts. By September, things had failed to improve, Laity had been fired nine months after his hiring, and Salmon had been shipped off to Birmingham to play for WSL side Aston Villa. In hindsight, maybe we shouldn't have been that surprised that a man who looks (see below) like the love child of Sam Allardyce, Alan Pardew, and a caricature of an old angry English head coach from a "Ted Lasso" episode failed to get the most out of his roster.
Farewell, sweet prince
To replace Laity for 2024, the Dash returned to the well of young Spanish coaches, bringing in Fran Alonso just two years after losing former coach Juan Carlos Amoros --who had overseen the most successful period in recent Dash history-- to a higher paycheck courtesy of Gotham FC. After some issues obtaining his Visa, Alonso arrived in Houston for preseason with visions of turning the Dash into an athletic and exciting NWSL dark horse.
And the Dash really do have the horses! Returning both Ordonez and Sanchez, the Dash traded Prince to the Current in exchange for striker Cece Kizer, who returns to Houston, the team who drafted her in 2019. Kizer is tall. She's also fast. She's also a surprisingly effective player given she can't seem to stick on one team, averaging a respectable 0.60 goal contributions per 90 minutes. The Dash also added long time Red Star Yuki Nagasato in free agency before their coup de grǎce, the addition of Swedish national team midfield constant Elin Rubensson days before the start of the NWSL season.
Key Additions: Cece Kizer (F), Yuki Nagasato (AM), Elin Rubensson (CM)
Key Losses: Nichelle Prince (F), Joelle Anderson (CM)
How they want to play:
There is, (not so) shockingly, little data or match footage of Alonso's Celtic team. Despite this information deficit, google sleuth that I am, I was able to find that the Celtic Women (not to be confused with popular Irish band "Celtic Woman") played predominantly a 3-4-3. 3-4-3s are typically risky, aggression-based formations; and Celtic dogwalking the Scottish league year after year using their comparatively far superior resources allowed Alonso to use what is essentially a four-wide formation in a way that may be challenging in a more competitive league.
Alonso's previous managerial job
Assuming Alonso copy-pastes his tactics from his previous job, it will be interesting to see what the personnel looks like. On paper, the Dash do have a roster that could fit a 3-4-3. In Michelle Alozie on the right and either former UNC winger Avery Patterson or veteran defender Courtney Peterson on the left, they have two wide players with high motors capable of moving high into attacking spaces or dropping into defensive positions. Any version of a 3-4-3 Alonso will play will need to have the ability to transition into a back 5 at times, and the positional flexibility of Alozie and Patterson/Peterson should allow that to happen relatively easily.
It is difficult to know for sure how much of the Dash's league-best defensive record in 2023 was a product of Laity's archaic defensive tactics and perennially underrated keeper Jane Campbell standing on her head all season (Campbell was second in the league in G+), but it seems unlikely they will be able to replicate that performance, especially if the tactic is a hyper-aggressive 3-4-3. CBs Natalie Jacobs and Katie Lind are hardly household names, but they led the Dash to a league-best 18 goals conceded- A remarkable record given the Dash only scored 16 all season and were frequently under the cosh. Much of 2023's defensive stability came because the naturally defensive double pivot of Sophie Schmidt and whoever partnered her sat back and protected the defensive line, while Sanchez and the crew of wingers populating Houston's right side were asked to drop back defensively. Now likely to be relatively unprotected, Lind, Naughton, and Austrian Captain Sarah Puntigam s will need to make quick reads and distribute well.....something that Naughton has been acceptable at, but is not really a strength of any of the three CBs.
The last question Alonso will need to answer is which of his many central midfield options will get the call in the all-important center of the 3-4-3. More likely than not, veteran Canadian Sophie Schmidt and new signing Elin Rubensson will sit deep and protect the back line, with Brazilian Andressa Alves the odd woman out. Schmidt and Rubensson both make sense in the 3-4-3: Both are technically adept, physical center midfielders who are more than happy to sit and distribute. Neither are elite passers, but both are experienced high-floor options in a midfield that will be tasked with acting as the anchor to what will almost certainly be a vertically-oriented team.
The Dash's outlook will depend on whether Alonso can scheme up a way to get the Dash's attacking trio the ball in dangerous areas. Ordonez's poor 2023 was in large part because she just didn't see a lot of the ball. A 4-wide formation should play to her strengths perfectly, and I would be surprised if we didn't get a bounce back year from her. There are questions over whether the CB trio has the ability to play a consistent back three in a high-pressing style, but the duo of Schmidt and Rubensson should be able to act as training wheels. I'm relatively bullish on -- and intrigued by-- the Dash. Long one of the league's most boring clubs, they have the potential to be a legitimately interesting watch entering 2024. Their ceiling is probably still just a playoff team, but in an NWSL jungle where anything can happen, who knows?
Projected Starting 11:
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