NWSL 2024 Season Preview Part III- Spoon Contenders

We wrap our season preview with the last five NWSL teams, starting with:

#10 Seattle Reign

Oh, I wanted to put the Reign even lower on this list, believe me. I just don't quite see it with this team, and clearly neither do their fans who, despite finally averaging over 13K per match in 2023 (though that average was certainly bolstered by the 35K or so who showed up to watch Megan Rapinoe's final home game), remain reluctant to actually show up to support their team, despite said team now playing their home matches in downtown Seattle. Embarrassing, really.

Or maybe it's not! Laura Harvey's Reign squads have been almost impossibly boring over the past three years. As franchise cornerstones Rapinoe and tiny Welsh midfielder (and Rocky Rodriguez's child as of September 2023), Jess Fishlock have aged into their mid-late 30s, the Reign have failed to build anything resembling a competent attack around young Canadian striker Jordyn Huitema. I complained in the Wave preview section about how manager Casey Stoney's low block 4-2-3-1 is unbefitting of the roster talent. Harvey's Reign sides --despite enjoying a modicum of success-- might be even worse from a watchability perspective. Based around a sturdy spine of Reign original Lauren Barnes, fringe USWNTers Sofia Huerta and Alanna Cook, and Canadian midfield anchor Quinn, the Reign lacked creativity and relied heavily on crosses from Huerta and Rapinoe onto the heads of Huitema and striker-turned winger Bethany Balcer. The Reign know what they are, and what they are is an unimaginative attacking side that relies on direct service into the box.

Their creativity issues were made worse in the offseason when attacking engine with ankles of glass Rose Lavelle went glory-hunting and signed for the defending NWSL champs Gotham. Defensive midfielder Emily Sonnet followed Lavelle to Gotham, before the Reign dealt Sam Hiatt --who had been protected in the expansion draft-- to Gotham as well. On the incoming transfer side of things, the Reign have had a relatively tepid offseason with GM Leslie Gallimore limited as the Reign await a sale. Even after signing South Korean attacking midfielder Ji So-Yun and Welsh duo Angharad James and Lily Woodham, Seattle remain a team that will not scare many NWSL defenses. For one, their roster is the oldest in the NWSL: While they employ a few talented U-25s in Huitema, midfielder Olivia Van der Jagt, and Woodham; their key players are almost exclusively on the wrong side of 30. Ji is 33. Barnes is 34. Fishlock is 37. Huerta is 31. Quinn and Cook are 27 and 28 respectively, but both are pretty much what they are at this point in their careers.

Is there a world where I'm being a tad harsh and the Reign make another shield run? Yeah, probably. Could Harvey's side skate by on their solid back line? Sure, maybe. In order to do so, they'll need Ji to return to her late 2010s Chelsea best, Huitema to take a real leap, and the defense to remain as steady as ever. Possible? Yes. Likely? I think not.

Key Additions: Ji So-Yun (AM), Lily Woodham (LB/MF), Angharad James (CM)

Key Losses: Rose Lavelle (AM), Emily Sonnet (CM/CB), Angelina (CM), Megan Rapinoe (F), Sam Hiatt (CB)

How they want to play:

Harvey almost exclusively sets up the Reign in a 4-2-3-1. With Lavelle out for much of 2023, Fishlock was asked to play higher up the field as the 10 but often dropped deep into her more natural 8 role resulting in what functionally played as a 4-5-1. With Ji replacing Lavelle in the 10 role, Fishlock will likely drop back and partner Quinn in central midfield.

With Rapinoe's retirement, the Reign are even shorter on the wings in 2024 than they were in 2023. Harvey will have the option of shunting Bethany Balcer into the wide areas as she frequently did in 2023, or trying out new signing Woodham on the left wing. Balcer is an excellent 9 with a similar profile to Huitema, who is really just a victim of Seattle's roster construction. Balcer is most likely to play on the left wing and will frequently make her trademark back post runs to meet the inevitable hundreds of Sofia Huerta crosses that comprise much of Seattle's offensive output.

They're....the same picture!

Other than Ji stepping in for Lavelle, the Reign figure to play in mostly the same fashion as they did much of last season: A slow-paced, stable, and wing-dependent system that should keep them in most games. The Reign have given plenty of indications that they may no longer see Fishlock as an everyday player, rostering a wealth of central midfield options including local product Van der Jagt, new signing James, youngster Olivia Athens, and draft pick Sam Meza. One thing to watch is the potential for a shift to a diamond to accommodate Seattle's wealth of central midfielders and dearth of wingers. Woodham's profile is one of a player who likes to overlap down the wing, which would offer the width needed to execute a diamond tactically. Reign mainstay Lauren Barnes will likely shift inwards to play CB in most matches, with Phoebe Mclernon and Woodham tag-teaming the LB position. If the Reign do stick with the 4-2-3-1, Tziarra King and Balcer will have to cover the wings with limited depth behind them, with Huitema leading the line.

Yeahhh...Sofia love a cross!

Projected Starting 11:

#11 Angel City FC

Hollywood FC's offseason has been.....interesting to say the least. After a barnstorming end to the season that saw Angel City race towards a playoff spot after now-permanent then-interim head coach Becky Tweed took over from Freya Coombe, I expected some major additions in an offseason that promised to bring a cap spike and new competition to the North. Well, the cap spike happened. So did the competition to the North. ACFC's offseason? Some good work around the edges, but no major splashes.

That work around the edges included the addition of yet more promising teenagers in Alyssa's little sister Gisele Thompson and U-17 USWNT standout Kennedy Fuller. ACFC also benefitted from former Orlando striker Messiah Bright asking to be moved, adding Bright to a cupboard of strikers that was looking a tad bare outside of the aging Sydney Leroux. Angel City's biggest move was signing Costa Rican international midfielder Rocky Rodriguez from Portland, taking advantage of the Thorns' need to recoup some of the near $300K spent on Jessie Fleming. Other than Rodriguez and Bright, Tweed has mostly the same starting group to work with, minus wingers Jun Endo (another ACL tear victim) and number 10 Savannah McKaskill (signed by SD in free agency).

With the NWSL weekly transfer record being broken seemingly weekly, ACFC's radio silence in the international market was both worrying for ACFC fans and confusing for fans neutrals. Surely the league's most-marketed franchise wouldn't be a total zero in the international transfer market? As the season opener got closer and closer, it became clear ACFC wasn't just waiting for a big splash- They were full-on sitting out the offseason. The reason why became clear mere days before Angel City's season opener against their brand new NorCal rivals Bay FC.

That reason was, frankly, that the ownership model that had brought so much praise from some and derision from others was already causing issues internally. Sportico reported that ACFC's board had employed investment bank Moelis and Co. to hunt for a controlling owner that would assume control over ACFC's finances. Unsurprisingly, after a vast number of celebrities who thought supporting women's sports might be a fun gig, the rising costs associated with running a professional sports franchise became too much. Were the NFT sales unsuccessful? Did restricting supporter groups' freedom of expression not yield the anticipated attendance spike? What happeneduh? The follow-up LA Times report indicated that the four "original investor-owners" had been feuding for over six months. Apparently, there were concerns around over-spending. Those four original investors are husband of Serena Williams Alexis Ohanian, actress Natalie Portman, entertainment exec and human jump scare Julie Uhrman, and venture capitalist Kara Nortman.

Out of my closet you witch!

ACFC will be fine in the long term- They are valued at $180 million and have a talented, young roster, a dedicated-if-green fanbase, and a good manager. For now, however, the rest of us can enjoy some well-earned schadenfreude.

Key Additions: Gisele Thompson (RB), Messiah Bright (F), Rocky Rodriguez (CM), Meggie Dougherty-Howard (CM), Kennedy Fuller (CM)

Key Losses: Scarlett Camberos (W), Savannah McKaskill (AM) Jun Endo (SEI)

How they want to play:

The great Tweedaisance of the latter half of the 2023 season was quite remarkable. Previous manager Freya Coombe's Angel City teams were underwhelming, failing to look cohesive in attack and picking up just nine points by mid-June. Coombe was fired on June 15th, with Tweed appointed as Angel City's interim and tasked with getting the faltering Angels closer to the playoff line.

And that she did. Implementing a sturdy 4-2-3-1 that turned into a 4-2-4 press out of possession, Angel City finished the season with a 5-1 battering of then-shield contenders Portland, sneaking into the NWSL's fifth playoff spot in the process. Tweed brought out the best in a number of players, most notably LB MA Vignola who developed into the league's premier pressing FB in Tweed's high press, and midfielder Madison Hammond who slotted into the number eight role next to French veteran six Amandine Henry. Angel City's shape was among the most compact in NWSL: Hammond and Henry sat in the middle of midfield and nullified opposing tens. Savannah McKaskill, who had struggled to find her best role in a variety of different 11s across various teams, blossomed as a marauding hybrid eight/ten and harassed the living daylights out of opposing sixes.

Defenders Vignola and CB Sarah Gorden were revelations at the back, especially Vignola, who was consistently an absolute TERROR down the left side. I mean, look at this spider-chart. For those that didn't watch a lot of Angel City, Vignola was absolutely everywhere, and was crucial to Tweed's 4-2-4 press. Both Vignola and Gorden had a propensity to step out of defense and break the opposition's press in the process. Both were in the the 85th percentile or higher in progressive carries, and Vignola's offensive output for a FB with similarly impressive defensive stats was frankly baffling.

Tweed will look to continue last season's hot finish into 2024, but will have to do so without key contributors Camberos (traded to Bay FC), Jun Endo (SEI- ACL), and McKaskill (left for SoCal rivals San Diego in free agency). To replace Endo, Tweed will likely lean more heavily on teenage prodigy Alyssa Thompson, who spent most of 2023 coming off the bench. Scottish winger Claire Emslie started 19 games for Angel City in 2023 and was generally preferred to Camberos, so she figures to maintain her starting position alongside Bright and Thompson. McKaskill's spot is a little more up in the air- Tweed doesn't have a true 10 on the roster, so it will likely be down to newly-signed 17-year old Kennedy Fuller and veteran Dougherty-Howard to fill the role ahead of Henry and new signing Rodriguez.

In a season where over half the league will make the playoffs, Angel City figures to be in the morass of teams fighting for the last few of those spots. If Tweed can continue to get the best of her squad, I'd feel pretty good about the pink and silver jumping into the top six.

Projected Starting 11:

#11 Racing Louisville FC

This feels like the third straight year Louisville has entered the NWSL regular season with optimism. Wearing their Kentucky derby-themed lavender argyle home shirts that look like something I've seen in my great-grandmother's retirement home in sweater form, and bolstered by the addition of well-regarded ex-NWSL veteran Bev Yanez as manager, Louisville goes into 2024 aiming to make their first playoff appearance since entering the league as an expansion team in 2021.

P sure I've seen my grandfather where this as a sweater vest

The core of the Louisville roster remains the same with a few minor changes. The club swapped South African attackers, losing electric striker Thembi Kgatlana to Liga MX side Tigres and replacing her with silky winger Linda Motalho. Louisville also beefed up (literally) their spine, bringing in 6'1 midfielder Taylor Flint via trade from San Diego in exchange for 150K in allocation money, and defender Arin Wright from Chicago in free agency. Talismanic attacking midfielder Savannah Demelo signed a three year extension in the offseason, completing a midfield three with the so-far underwhelming Jaelin Howell, and the do-it-all Brazilian Ary Borges.

Despite finishing 9th in the hilariously tight NWSL playoff race, Louisville was really no better or worse than a distinctly average NWSL team, finishing the year with a cumulative xG of 29.1 and a goal differential of +1, good for 7th in the league ahead of Shield winners San Diego in both categories. The defense, which on goals allowed was surprisingly effective --finishing 4th in the league-- was aided by keeper Katie Lund, who finished the season with 4.43 goals prevented and led the league in GK G+ despite her defense allowing the 3rd highest cumulative xG in the league. Louisville's talented midfield failed to maintain control, leading to the team finishing 3rd to last in total touches in the middle third. With a hopefully un-interrupted and healthy season, Yanez will aim to have Louisville play a little more cohesively in 2024, allowing her midfielders to exert more influence on each match.

Key Additions: Linda Motalho (F), Arin Wright (CB), Taylor Flint (CM)

Key Losses: Wang Shuang (AM), Thembi Kgatlana (F)

How they want to play:

Louisville were the most transition-oriented, direct attack in the league in 2023 and one of the teams with the least control of the middle third of the field. The two graphics below show Louisville's tactic (or lackthereof) under former manager Kim Bjorkegren. Despite their seemingly talented midfield, Louisville consistently conceded possession to the opposition, allowing teams to put their backline under near constant pressure.

Louisville go vertical (via https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/04/nwsl-stats-2023/)

Midfield control, I think not! (https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/04/nwsl-stats-2023/)

Yanez has been clear that, as a former NWSL player, she wants to be known as a players coach. Replacing two unsuccessful and-- at times-- grating men in the position, Yanez's first task will be to install a culture change. Tactically, it would be difficult to get any more transition-oriented than Louisville were in 2023, but Yanez will want to develop a clear identity for her squad. The wealth of midfield talent on the Louisville roster lends itself to a diamond 4-1-2-1-2, with Howell sitting at the base of the midfield four, Flint and Borges in the eight roles, and Demelo playing below strikers Motalho and one of the returning Kirsten Wright, Kanu, or rookie Reillyn Turner.

While this is all prognostication at this point-- Yanez may well elect to go with a 4-3-3 variant-- but the diamond formation also suits the strengths of Louisville FBs Carson Pickett and Lauren Milliet, both of whom are excellent crossers and enjoy overlapping down the wings. Louisville's attacking success will depend on whether Motahlo can have the star-level impact that Louisville needed and rarely received from Kgatlana, and whether the midfield can finally string together a few passes.

Aside from the midfield talent, Louisville's overall roster isn't at the level of the best NWSL squads. Yanez --with the help of Canadian hotshot coaching prospect Carmelita Moscato-- will have to figure out the nuances of the NWSL rather quickly, or 2024 could be another ugly year for those in purple.

Projected Starting 11:

#13 Chicago Red Stars

Wanna hear something crazy? The Chicago Red Stars made an NWSL Championship game just three years ago! Yeah! In 2021. They even finished 6th in 2022! This surprises me! After the 2021 Rory Dames / Arnim Whistler scandal, the Red Stars began to hemorraghe players. After the 2021 season, CB Sarah Gorden left for the Hollywood lights of expansion club Angel City and Julie Ertz soon followed her to LA. Winger Kealia Watt retired, and CB Kayla Sharples tore her ACL halfway through 2022. After 2022, longtime central midfielders Morgan Gautrat, Vanessa Diberardo, and Danielle Colaprico left in free agency. Talismanic winger Mallory Swanson tore her ACL early in 2023, leaving the Red Stars' roster nearly unrecognizable from that just two years prior. You know that Fresh Prince Meme of Will Smith alone in the empty house? That was Casey Krueger in 2022.

Mal? Kealia? Sarah?

The Red Stars were......bad bad in 2023. Like, stupendously bad. Levels of bad that really shouldn't be possible in a salary cap league. With a lame duck owner eerily similar to that a few thousand miles West following Whistler's stated intent to sell the team, the Red Stars lost key players with no way to replace them. With Krueger the only above average NWSL starter available to poor manager Chris Petrucelli, the Red Stars conceded an astounding 50 goals en route to finishing bottom of the table.

In character for a number of NWSL franchises, it needed to get worse before it got better for Chicago. And, going into 2024, it certainly looks like it is, finally, getting better. In September 2023, the Red Stars were sold to a group of Chicago area investors led by Cubs co-owner Laura Ricketts. Soon after, the Red Stars pulled off a real coup, hiring beloved former Jamaican women's national team coach Lorne Donaldson as manager (prepping for a 2024 FA run at former Donaldson protege, Sophia Smith, perhaps?). Despite losing Krueger to the Spirit in free agency, the Red Stars began to build out their roster from the back, acquiring former Thorns RB Natalia Kuikka in free agency, former Spirit defensive duo Sam Staab and Camryn Biegalski via trade, and German veteran Maximiliane Rall as an international signing.

The front two lines of the Red Stars lineup still lacks talent, but the framework of the roster buildout is taking shape. With the returning Swanson looking to get back to the red-hot form she had exhibited in 2022 pre-ACL tear, the Red Stars are on the right track.

Key Additions: Natalia Kuikka (RB/CB), Sam Staab (CB), Maximiliane Rall (RB), Camryn Biegalski (FB), Nadia Gomes (F)

Key Losses: Casey Krueger (RB)

How they want to play:

Don't be surprised if Donaldson goes very practical in his first season. While a back five wouldn't shock me, I think he'll most likely run out a standard 4-4-2, with the two CMs dropping back and shielding the back line, Swanson and 2nd year winger Penelope Hocking on the wings, and Gomes up top with 2nd year forward Ally Schlegel. Chicago's central midfield depth is lacking: First round draft pick Leilani Nesbeth is talented, but unproven. Veteran Cari Roccaro will likely start with well-regarded Brazilian Julia Bianchi. It would surprise me to see a midfield three, however- There is not a true number 10 not named Nesbeth on the roster, and the Red Stars will likely see very little of the ball.

Donaldson's personnel decisions on the back line will be the most interesting element of Chicago's tactical setup. Rall is a RB and has been almost exclusively throughout her Bayern Munich days. FA signing Kuikka plays CB internationally for Finland, but played a mostly effective RB during her time in Portland. Early indications are that Donaldson sees Kuikka as a CB, meaning that the preferred back four will likely be Staab and Kuikka inside of the ever-consistent Tatum Milazzo on the left and Rall on the right.

Underrated Ms. Sam Staab!

Don't be surprised if Donaldson's Chicago squad overachieves in 2024. The guy is GOOD, and players love him. With a top three backline in the league and an MVP candidate on the wings, the Red Stars will aim to cede possession and use the "give the ball to Mal Swanson" strategy to poach goals at the other end. I couldn't justify putting this team higher than 12th, but I'm also a coward- Papa Lorne could very easily have this team in the hunt for the playoffs. Oh, and their kits are GORGEOUS.

Projected Starting 11:

#14 Utah Royals

Oh boy. If you ever needed an example of how big of a deal location makes in expansion roster building, take a gander at the contrast between the opening day rosters of Utah and Bay FC. While our investigators could not rule out the Nazi-inspired stylings of "America First Credit Union" as the primary reason for the lack of marquee signings, the real reason is probably more, ya know, the Utah of it all. The state is viewed as "hostile" by the Center for Reproductive Rights after effectively banning abortions after the 2022 Supreme Court decision, before further limiting the allowance for those in case of rape or incest to 17.6 weeks. Combined with Utah's general, well, Utah-ness, and Royal's roster build has been underwhelming to say the least.

The thing is, Utah's fans show out! In the previous iteration of the now-Current Royals franchise, the team averaged over 10K fans per home game, good for second in the NWSL at the time. The Royals' ownership seems perfectly competent. The org hasn't had any major issues since finalizing its expansion award, and seems positioned to be a stable NWSL franchise.

Unfortunately for those fans, there's no real other way to put in other than to say that this Royals roster is......THE WORST THE NWSL HAS EVER SEEN. It's so bad. I don't know if the Royals' FO made the choice not to build through the international market or whether internationals really didn't want to come to Utah, but this roster is like reading through a decade of semi-successful NWSL vets, ex-BYU stars and Utah natives, and career backups whose previous club could not afford to keep them due to either the expansion draft or in free agency. The roster is built around number one overall pick striker Ally Sentor, 4th overall pick (and coolest name award winner) ex-BYU striker Brecken Mozingo, and former SD defender Kaleigh Riehl. Utah's fleet of BYU grads also includes former Pride CM Mikayla Cluff, journeywoman winger Michelle Vasconcelos, and forward Cameron Tucker. At least they'll feel a sense of local pride!

How they want to play:

Manager, former Royal, and USWNT vet Amy Rodriguez has a tall task on her hands. Will she attempt to instill a more aggressive attacking system despite the dearth of talent? Or will she do the pragmatic thing and try to sit-and-kick the Royals off the bottom of the NWSL table. Every thing we know about Rodriguez would suggest the former: A prolific scorer in her own NWSL days, Rodriguez was hyper-aggressive and terrorized back lines with her combination of pace, bowling-ball-esque strength, and high level finishing. In opening their roster build with Mozingo, Sentnor, and former Thorns striker Hannah Betfort, the Royals elected to take the road less traveled in comparison to recent expansion clubs, building with youth from front to back. Cluff and Swedish six Agnes Nyberg provide a sturdy presence in the center of midfield in front of a defense likely anchored by former Wave defenders Madison Pogarch and Riehl.

Given the players Rodriguez has to work with, a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 variant appears to make the most sense. The Royals, unlike the Red Stars, don't have the high level backline where they'll be able to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, nor do they have the elite counterattacking presence a Mallory Swanson provides. They'll need to try to get on the ball a little bit, because most NWSL sides will be able to break down a defense that lacks talent on paper.

There are not many paths forward for a successful Royals season. Any version of 2024 that doesn't end with Utah's name showing up on the bottom of the table will be a rousing success for most NWSL watchers outside of the state of Utah.

Projected Starting 11: