NWSL 2024 Season Preview Part I- The Contenders

Successfully power ranking NWSL teams in the preseason is a challenge akin to any number of unenviable tasks. Defending Sophia Smith 1v1. Getting Lindsey Horan to stop talking about her study abroad trip to France. A Paramount+ match with broadcast quality better than 240P. You get the idea.

But, what really IS preseason if not a time for wild prognostication? Surely the whole point of the NWSL's unprecedented TV deal(s), resultant salary cap spike, and subsequent offseason splurges is so we can do exactly that. So, after an offseason that included (deep breath):

• A double expansion draft

• The league's first true free agency window

• The Portland Thorns finally unshackling themselves from the grubby paws of Merritt Paulson's ineptitude for a hopefully less grubby --but equally rich-- pair of hands.

• The NWSL 40x-ing its previous yearly TV revenue by signing a $60 million broadcast deal with pillars of the sports broadcasting industry such as ESPN, CBS, Amazon.......and something called "ion."

• The institution of a $500K transfer fee cap, allocation money on the way out, and a $2.75M salary cap.

• Multiple NWSL franchises taking turns beating those lovely, intrinsically American spending cap mechanisms in like a piñata; breaking world transfer records in the process
  

.......we have finally arrived at the offseason's coda, which, in true NWSL fashion, involves a great number of its most important players competing in an international tournament scheduled to conclude just days before the league's much anticipated season opener.

Let's get into our top four:

#1 Gotham FC

I know, I know. Yael Averburch's Yankees-esque offseason splurge isn't for everybody. "What about the chemistry?" some yell. "Too many mouths to feed," scream others. "Midge Purce, why didn't you square the ball to Sophia Smith for a tap in during the CONCACAF Gold Cup QF," others moan (it was me, I was the moaner).

But this is a preseason projection, and preseason projections tend to focus on the talent. And boy, does Gotham have talent in spades (or bats, or whatever dumb Batman-related marketing tool they're rolling out nowadays). This is, unequivocally, the most talented roster the league has ever seen. It's not close. It's so not close that I don't understand how it's even possible under the salary cap (drink every time I complain about the NWSL's delphic spending rules). Gotham can roll out two full strength NWSL-caliber 11s, lost very few key pieces from the group that won the NWSL Championship last year, and boast one of the NWSL's smartest tactical coaches. Do they have decisions to make? Yes. Is it possible the pieces don't gel? Sure. But I'm betting on talent with this group.

Key additions: Crystal Dunn (MF), Tierna Davidson (CB), Emily Sonnett (MF/CB), Rose Lavelle (AM), Sam Hiatt (CB)

Key losses: Allie Krieger (CB), Mandy Haught (GK), Ify Onumonu (F), Kristie Mewis (CM)

How they want to play:

Coach Juan Carlos Amoros likes his teams to play in a traditional possession-based 4-3-3, focusing play through the middle. Gotham had a relatively rough start to 2023 and struggled to execute Amoros' vision. The following series of pass maps ( https://twitter.com/sizeofinfinity/status/1673453891524935680) is Amoros attempting to execute with a less-than-preferred 11: You can see the outline of his strategy, but it was too often disconnected as Gotham's wingers lacked the technical ability to play the requisite inverted role, the troop of wingers masquerading as strikers didn't score goals and couldn't play the false 9 role Amoros asked of them, and the result was generally pretty ugly.

That changed for the better when Averburch went out and bought two experienced Spaniards. CB Maitane Lopez and striker Esther Gonzalez were not only already familiar with how Amoros wanted to play when they touched down in New Jersey, they had marinated in the suddenly thriving Spanish soccer tradition throughout their respective careers. Esther immediately slotted in as the false 9 of Amoros' dreams, allowing Lynn Williams and the returning Midge Purce to move into more familiar wide roles. Maitane, a deep-lying central midfielder with CB capabilities, became a fixture in the middle of the Gotham defense and often played as a de-facto 6 when Gotham were in control of matches. Along with rookie Jenna Nighswonger (a natural attacking midfielder who Amoros successfully converted to LB), the experienced Ali Krieger, and Brazilian RB Bruninha; Gotham's backline quickly transformed into the best ball-playing back four in the league. Suddenly, Gotham's previously disconnected pass maps more consistently started to look like the one below. The two FBs pushed high and the attacking unit of Purce, Williams, Yazmeen Ryan, and Esther combined with the much under-appreciated midfield duo of Delanie Sheehan and Nealy Martin to suffocate teams, leading to Gotham's late season surge and title. It is likely we see Amoros keep the same system and general style, but there are questions about how he will fit his wealth of high-paid attacking talent into the same lineup.

Projected starting 11:

#2 San Diego Wave

Full disclosure: It pains me to high hell to put the Wave in the second spot. As a former San Diego resident, Casey Stoney's cooler-inspired brand of 2009-era Stoke City sit-and-kick is unworthy of the San Diego name. The Wave's style should be cool, man. Their soccer should flow like their namesake. Their brand should evoke images of blond surfers sipping Ballast Point IPAs on a La Jolla beach in those new talk-of-the-town candyfloss kits. Instead, Stoney has her squad playing in an irritatingly effective low block, rarely conceding, and making me want to doze off whenever they appear on my TV screen.

Alright, that's probably not entirely fair: Stoney's two year tenure in SD has been almost remarkably successful. In year one, she brought her team to an NWSL semi where --sorry, I must pause here to remember one of the greatest live sporting moments of my life-- the Wave had their hearts ripped out by a duet of sumptuous volleys at the home of the eventual champion Thorns. In year two, the Wave snatched the shield from a collapsing Thorns team on the last day of the regular season. In CB Naomi Girma and jack-of-all-attacking-trades phenom Jaedyn Shaw, the Wave can claim to have arguably the two most important players in the country's national team pool. They may play a particular brand of (in)suffer(able) ball, but Stoney ensures the players know their roles and execute her game plan. And that's something.

Key Additions: Savannah McKaskill (AM), Elyse Bennett (F), Hanna Lundkvist (D)

Key Losses: Taylor Flint (CM), Kaileigh Riehl (D), Madison Pogarch (D)

How they want to play:

Stoney will mix up the intricacies of her formation to suit the opponent, but the Wave typically stick to a 4-2-3-1. The "2" in the 4-2-3-1 is what makes the Wave the Wave: Whereas some teams play a double pivot with a more attacking 8 (see Thorns, Portland), the Wave's double pivot is generally comprised of two sixes. In 2023, it was a combination of the trio of Australian Emily Van Egmond, NWSL vet Danielle Colaprico, and the now-departed giant Taylor Flint. After re-acquiring poor Sierra Enge after the midfielder was left unprotected and then selected in the expansion draft, it is likely that we continue to see some version of the double 6 pivot with Colaprico, Enge, and Van Egmond, but it is also possible that we see a slightly more attacking version with Savannah McKaskill at the 8.

It is in front of the double pivot and USWNT CB pairing Naomi Girma and Abby Dalhkemper where the questions start to arise. What is the best use of 19 year old superstar Jaedyn Shaw? Both Stoney and interim USWNT coach Twila Kilgore have deployed Shaw all across the front line as an inverted winger, a false nine, and a true 10. If Shaw is healthy, the Wave have the best attacking midfield talent in the country and the system will run through her. That system, however, lacks firepower outside of the teenage dynamo. Alex Morgan is still a more than capable striker, but she is now 34 and quickly moving out of her prime. Swedish winger Sofia Jakobson has been a major disappointment since she signed two years ago-- her fbref profile https://fbref.com/en/players/27a4ff80/Sofia-Jakobsson puts her squarely in the 25th percentile or lower in every key attacking metric-- and striker Amirah Ali, newly-signed winger Elyse Bennett, and Irish international Kyra Carusa are solid if unspectacular options. Teenage winger Melanie Barcenas oozes talent, but is unlikely to be ready for a major contributing role. Experienced midfielder Savannah McKaskill may push Shaw onto the wing and provide a slight attacking spark if she isn't deployed deeper, but I remain unconvinced that the Wave will be better than a mediocre attack.

In the end, the Wave's attacking issues may not matter. Stoney's teams are always sturdy, and in Girma they have the best CB in the league, and one of the best in the world. We may not enjoy watching the Wave, but their floor remains high so long as Morgan, Shaw, and Girma are in the 11.

Projected Starting 11:

#3 Portland Thorns

If the Wave are the NWSL's high-floor-low-ceiling team, the inverse almost certainly applies to the Thorns. How to describe whatever the 2024 Thorns are? Maybe they're your super hot friend who everyone has a crush on but has some hidden insecurities (it's the defense. The defense is the insecurity). Maybe they're the stereotypical peaked-in-high-school football player living off their past success. Or maybe they're just a really confusing soccer team with the potential to be either scarily elite or concede an NWSL record amount of goals. Or all of the above.

The Thorns come into the 2024 season on a relative high. They are finally rid of previous owner and human boat anchor Merritt Paulson, who, aside from his many serious off-field transgressions, has almost certainly been withholding money for use on transfer fees, resulting in a squad with major depth issues (maybe that's the insecurity). New owner Lisa Bhathal and her fleet of family members have done everything right so far, but one should never fully trust a rich person in charge of a beloved sporting franchise. GM Karina LeBlanc, finally given money to spend, almost immediately flipped Costa Rican midfielder Rocky Rodriguez to ACFC for a tidy sum of allocation money and used said allocation money to bring in her white whale in the über-talented, pink-cheeked diminutive Canadian central midfielder Jessie Fleming from Chelsea. LeBlanc's other business has ranged from the potentially incompetent (letting Finnish defender Natalia Kuikka decamp for the Chicago Red Stars) to the "OK I guess that's good" (re-signing vets Meghan Klingenberg, Christine Sinclair, and Becky Sauerbrunn) to the legitimately intriguing (bringing in young defenders Marie Müller, Isabella Obaze, and Nicole Payne from European club sides).

What makes the Thorns a contender? Well, there are at LEAST two reasons:

• They have (for at least one more year!) MVP striker Sophia Smith who has absolutely terrorized the NWSL from the minute she stepped foot on the Providence Park astroturf.

• Behind Smith, they have arguably the best young core in the league. Wingers Morgan Weaver and Hina Sugita, 18 year old veteran (lol) attacking midfielder Olivia Moultrie, Canadian captain Fleming, and future captain and possible overall-best-human-in-the-world, newly-minted USWNT six Sam Coffey make up a front 6 that if deployed correctly, should score boatloads of goals.

BUT (foreboding music in the background), ALL WAS NOT WELL IN THE FRIENDLY CONFINES OF PROVIDENCE PARK. See "How they want to play" below.

Key Additions: Jessie Fleming (CM), Marie Müller (FB), Isabella Obaze (CB), Nicole Payne (RB), Olivia Wade-Katoa (CM)

Key Losses: Crystal Dunn (CM), Rocky Rodriguez (CM), Emily Menges (CB), Natalia Kuikka (RB)

How they want to play:

Well, that's the rub, isn't it? We don't really know what interim-turned-maybe-permanent head coach Mike Norris wants to do. In interviews, Norris has typically talked about how much he wants to press, that he's a 4-3-3 guy, and that he wants his teams to play with "aggression." In reality, Norris changed formation three separate times during 2023 and it never felt like his team were ever comfortable with any of them.

Norris and the Thorns started 2023 in the relentless, high-press 4-3-3 that the Geordie manager envisioned. The Thorns' front 6 led by Smith, Weaver, Hina, and the now-departed Crystal Dunn pressed the hapless Kansas City Current into numerous errors in what had promised to their first real challenge on the in Kansas City. Smith went nuclear and scored one of the best hat tricks you'll ever see, and the Current never really recovered. But even in the largely-encouraging road-opener, the seeds for the Thorns' ultimate defensive collapse were there. Once the relentless pressing became untenable (ya know, because players get tired, especially 86 year old Christine Sinclair), the Current started getting more of the ball. Gaps appeared in the midfield. The KC wingers started finding space in behind the fullbacks. In the end, the Thorns won 4-1 and it didn't matter because waves at Sophia Smith in space, but again.....the seeds were there.

Those seeds grew into big, ugly weeds as the season went on, most notably when the team traveled South to play in the early-summer heat. In three games against the Houston Dash, North Carolina Courage, and Orlando Pride, the Thorns conceded eight times and picked up one point from the three games. Norris' 4-3-3 devolved into more of a 2-1-7 with both FBs and eights pushed high, isolating poor Sam Coffey and the two CBs against wave after wave of opposition attacks. Was the issue that Norris' aggressive tactics were inherently flawed, or that the Thorns relative lack of speed through its spine was prohibitive? The answer was probably both. Sam Coffey is not a lone 6. She doesn't have the speed to cover defensively, lacks the fully-developed natural defensive instincts of a true lone 6, and wants to be ON the ball. The two eights ahead of Coffey --usually a combination of 96 year old Christine Sinclair, teenager Olivia Moultrie, and starved-for-midfield-minutes Crystal Dunn-- played more like 10s, each for different reasons. In Sinclair's case, it was because she's old and slow. In Moultrie's, it was because she is a natural 10 who isn't quick or defensively capable enough to play as an 8 at this point in her career. Dunn was mostly fine, but her goal-scoring instincts frequently took over, pulling her higher and higher up the field, isolating Coffey and the defenders even more.

Somewhat to his credit, Norris changed things up after the World Cup break, moving to a double pivot where the returning Rocky Rodriguez partnered Coffey, allowing Dunn to shift into a more natural 10 position. The double pivot took two different forms: First, a 4-2-3-1, then a 4-2-2-2 with Dunn and Hina playing as wide 10s. It often looked better and certainly was more sturdy, but the team was so discombobulated and out of sync that it seemed as though the direction from the coaching staff was going in one ear and out the other.....or, was just really terrible direction. This pass map from the Washington Spirit game (in which a horrific refereeing decision cost the Thorns three points and ultimately the shield) is emblematic of the issues the Thorns faced all year long: No passing patterns and a lack of touches in midfield despite playing a box 4-2-2-2, and minimal connection between the midfielders and attackers.

The 2024 Thorns should still score lots of goals. In Smith, they have the best striker in the league, and even at their worst in 2023 the team was plenty capable of some slick attacking moves. The younger, more mobile Fleming replaces Rodriguez and will likely sit next to Coffey in a double pivot. Fleming, in theory, fits the roster like a glove: An intricate and wonderfully intelligent passer, it is difficult to see a world in which she doesn't improve the Thorns midfield connectivity issues. Olivia Moultrie, fresh off scoring a brace in her first career start for the USWNT, looks primed to step into a much larger role so long as the 105-year old Sinclair doesn't appear behind her like a horror movie character and steal her minutes. Hina and Weaver are about as good a fire and ice winger combination as you'll find, with the former inverting and the latter driving touchline to touchline.

The question, as always, lies with the defense. Long time Thorns CB stalwart Emily Menges left for Bay FC, and RB Natalia Kuikka for Chicago. The Thorns appear to have replaced Kuikka adequately, bringing in German LB Marie Müller (see the profile overlay graphic below- Müller is better technically and has slightly less of a defensive profile) who has impressed in limited preseason minutes, shifting young Mexican LB Reyna Reyes to RB. CB is much more murky. Menges is replaced by veteran Kelli Hubly, who, while prone to an occasional error, is probably underrated league wide, but is certainly not a player the fans want to rely on week in week out. Opposite Hubly remains the legendary --if aging-- 38 year old Becky Sauerbrunn. Waiting in the wings behind the starting duo is 21 year old Danish international Isabella Obaze, who could easily be thrust into action should injury befall one of the two starters. The Thorns have probably done just about enough from a talent perspective to paper over some of the cracks, but questions remain about if Norris can protect his defense from getting overrun as it did consistently in 2023. From a tactical perspective, I worry about the speed. I worry that Norris' hyper-aggressive tactics will once again isolate a backline that is simultaneously too old and too young. Can Norris be better than he was last season? We shall see.

Projected Starting 11:

#4 Orlando Pride

OH YEAH! You bet I did it. In a league known for its chaos and unpredictability, getting unreasonably hyped on the league's former whipping boy-turned-trendy March Madness 13 seed seems the only proper way to round out the Tier 1 preview. A little bit of context: Orlando came into the league in 2015, promptly getting fleeced in a deal that moved LB Meghan Klingenberg, the first overall pick in the2016 NWSL draft that became CB Emily Sonnett, and the allocation rights to future league MVP Lindsey Horan to Portland in exchange for Alex Morgan, the 10th overall pick, and Canadian midfielder Kaylyn Kyle. Since then, the Pride have qualified for the NWSL playoffs just once in seven years, never finishing better than 7th, and have rocketed through six different head coaches. In 2020, the Thorns returned to the Pride resource well, receiving the first pick in the 2020 NWSL draft in exchange for Sonnett --who would never put on a Pride jersey-- and the 7th and 14th picks in the draft. The traded first overall pick would turn into future league MVP Sophia Smith, who was rumored to have only declared for the draft because the Thorns were the ones making the first overall pick. Not a GREAT look for the Pride.

Why oh why, you might ask, would you put your faith in THIS franchise? Well, here's why: In 2021, the Pride were sold to Minnesota Vikings owners Zygi and Mark Wilf, who after attempting to make a splash by hiring now scandal-ridden former UCLA head coach Amanda Cromwell, hired GM Haley Carter and current coach Seb Hines in 2023. You don't need to listen to Carter talk for very long to see that she gets it. A former marine corps officer and NWSL 1.0 GK with the Dash who went on to coach the Afghanistan women's national team, Carter has almost immediately brought a new and improved culture to the Pride, borne out by the Pride's newfound attractiveness to both domestic and international players. Since being appointed GM, Carter has added to 2023 marquee signing and should-have-been-a- league-MVP-candidate Adriana (seriously, look at her G+ https://app.americansocceranalysis.com/#!/nwsl/goals-added/players) and rookie CB Emily Sams (neé Madril) by signing what seems like half the Brazilian national team, veteran FA midfielder Morgan Gautrat, and most notably ABSOLUTELY SHATTERED the world transfer record (non-Rachel Kundanandji division) to sign Zambian superstar striker Barbra Banda. Perhaps relatedly, given the number of clubs who fail to do right by their players, Carter also facilitated a move to ACFC for second year striker Messiah Bright, a move that was almost certainly a brutal decision given how well Bright had played as a rookie in 2023. It is also worth noting that multiple Pride players have began the green card process, ensuring that they will no longer take up an international roster spot moving forward.

The other reason for my Pride optimism? Coach Seb Hines, who we'll get to shortly.

Key Additions: Barbra Banda (F), Morgan Gautrat (CM), Angelina (M), Luana (CM)

Key Losses: Messiah Bright (F), McKayla Cluff (CM)

How they want to play:

An important trait for any NWSL coach to have is the ability to do more with less. Even with the Pride's offseason acquisitions, this is still a squad that is closer to the bottom half of the league than the top in terms of cumulative talent. Fortunately, Hines --for the most part-- has shown the ability to squeeze some juice out of a relatively talent-deficient squad. Hines sets Orlando up in a defensive-minded 4-2-3-1 and has them sit and kick on the counter, getting the ball to Brazilian attackers Marta and Adriana in space. The question going into this season is whether that tactic was out of necessity, or whether Hines' style and philosophy is simply based on pragmatism. I hate to keep harping on the whole "the Pride had no talent" thing, but it's simply the truth.....particularly the midfield and FBs, where Orlando consistently trotted out C-tier NWSL veterans and low-round draft picks around rookie CB Emily Sams and Brazilian international Rafaelle. Teams with speed and flair throttled Orlando, particularly when the Pride played away from humid confines of Exploria Stadium.

If the Pride are to repay my confidence, they'll need to get a certain level of play out of their new-look central midfield. It is hard to overstate how much of an improvement the (hopefully healthy) Morgan Gautrat and Angelina pairing is over the revolving door of central midfielders Hines was forced to rely on for much of last season. In 2023, the Pride often simply couldn't keep the ball. Gautrat is an immediate upgrade in that respect, and should allow the Pride to ease forward rather than relying on the individual brilliance of Adriana to get them goals. Don't get me wrong, the Pride will still be a transition-oriented team --and should be given who they plan to play in attack-- but they will need to control the ball a little more if they want to make a real playoff push.

I do still have some major concerns about the roster, particularly at FB where the Pride return the duo of Kylie Strom and Haley McCutcheon, and at the 10 where Marta is (close your ears woso stans) pretty clearly nearing "totally washed" territory. However, the Pride are the epitome of more than the sum of their parts, and I find it more likely than not that Hines will elevate a group that is undeniably more talented than last season. Will they get all the way up to 4th? Eh, maybe not! But what's the point of preseason predictions if not to throw a wildcard in somewhere?

Projected Starting 11: