#1 Washington Spirit
Key additions: Narumi Miura (CM), Deborah Nabiodun (CM), Tamara Bolt (FW), Sandy McIver (GK), Rebecca Bernal (CB/DM)
Key losses: Anaig Butel (CB)
The American wing of owner Michelle Kang's Evil Empire enters 2025 coming off what should be considered by all measures a rousing success in year one of the Jonatan Giraldez era. The Spirit somehow finished second in both available trophy races despite transitioning coaches midway through the season and losing two-thirds of their midfield in NWSL ROTY-and-undisputed-coolest-player-in-the-league Croix Bethune and captain Andi Sullivan to injury. It wasn't a flukey 2nd, either: Washington only slightly over-performed their underlying metrics, finishing 3rd in non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and 4th in expected goals against (xGA).
While I certainly don't want to paint the 2024 Spirit as some sort of fluffy over-achieving underdog given, well, gestures roughly in the direction of the Kang billions and the former Barcelona manager trotting the sidelines in a size XS Spirit polo, I do think it is nonetheless worth pointing out that this was a team who relied heavily on rookie contributions, let a number of key 2023 performers walk during the offseason, and had to implement a completely new system amidst the most competitive arms race the NWSL has ever seen. Perhaps YOU had higher expectations for Washington....but I viewed 2024 as an evaluation year, not the near double-run it very nearly turned into.
When I say the Spirit relied heavily on rookie contributions, it's hard to over-exaggerate the extent of those contributions. Spirit fans, NWSL Twitterati, and indeed the prodigal DC daughter herself Trinity Rodman were shocked and appalled by the trade that netted Washington the 5th overall pick and a cool $250K in NWSL funny money in exchange for Ashley Sanchez. The trade wasn't lopsided, per-say, but it seemed odd that the Spirit would move off a player so beloved for the admittedly high-upside mystery box Bethune represented. Obviously, that one worked: Bethune played just two-thirds of the NWSL season, but finished the year with 10 assists, three more than second place Alyssa Thompson, and 6 expected assists....which trailed only teammate Rodman.
While Bethune justifiably garnered most of the plaudits, the Spirit actually had five --yes, FIVE-- rookies play over 500 minutes in 2024, three of them playing over 1000. The Courage pick received in the Sanchez deal opened up Bethune's path into the starting lineup as the third overall pick, but the pick itself was used to select holding midfielder Hal Hershfelt out of Clemson, who instantly became a mainstay in Giraldez's midfield and plowed her way onto the USWNT roster almost immediately. Forward McKenna Morris, drafted with the Spirit's 4th first round pick at 13 overall --also out of Clemson-- didn't play much, but received minutes at the end of the season after a rash of injuries to Washington's front line and finished with 5 goals and 2 assists. 7th overall pick Kate Wiesner was probably the most disappointing of Washington's crop of first rounders, but still played spot minutes, while 4th rounder Courtney Brown played in 24 matches, starting 10. Not a bad way to wrap up the NWSL draft era!
How they want to play:
I think the moment I knew Giraldez would do just fine in the NWSL is when it became clear he did not intend to try to instantly recreate his Barcelona teams. The Spirit were not a high possession team at just 50.7%, nor were they a particularly methodical one, finishing 7th in the league in total passes completed and 8th in total touches. On the other side, they also didn't play at a breakneck pace vertically like Kansas City, finishing almost exactly in the middle of NWSL pack in both passes per sequence and direct speed of attack.
So often we look at these spreadsheet stats and expect them to tell us something about style....and well, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. In Washington's case, it is hard to learn a whole lot from because of how varied the Spirit played depending on opponent. In matches they won, the Spirit typically hit teams early with a brutal press, scored, and then set back in the double pivot 4-2-3-1 and played on the counter. In matches they lost, Washington's possession percentage was actually higher -- four of their seven losses ranked in the top six highest possession matches-- meaning that they generally preferred to operate without the ball and let other teams come at them. If they couldn't get that early goal, we saw some cracks.
One constant, however, was how ruthlessly efficient Washington was when sat back in shape. Their holding midfield combo of Hershfelt and Sullivan both ranked in the top ten in tackles won and developed such an instant chemistry that it seemed as though they were connected by a string: When Hershfelt went on one of her frequent disruptive rampages forward, Sullivan held; and vice versa. Similarly, the defensive versatility of the Spirit attackers --Rodman and Ouleymata Sarr in particular-- meant that Giraldez's defensive posture was about as solid on the wings as you'll ever see. When the Spirit got a lead, they rarely let that lead go: In fact, the Spirit dropped points from a leading position just ONCE all season, an absolutely astonishing achievement. Similarly, all five of Washington's losses came when their opponent scored first.
2025 Season Outlook
The Spirit did not make any massive splashes in the 2025 offseason outside of CB Rebecca Bernal, though it is worth noting that Washington did add key pieces Leicy Santos, Rosemonde Kouassi, and Esme Morgan last summer. Washington's biggest add in 2025 was replacing the injured Sullivan with former Courage holding midfielder Narumi Miura in free agency. On paper, this is another perfect fit: Narumi's steady-if-molasses-slow control of the midfield should make Hershfelt feel right at home. Remember that "tackles completed stat"? Narumi ranked second in the league in tackles among midfielders, meaning that the Spirit now employ one-third of the ten best tackling midfielders in the league. Similarly, Santos should continue to deputize for Bethune until the latter returns from her knee injury. The timeline is yet unknown, but Bethune's tragic history of knee problems makes the Spirit's somewhat substantial outlay on a player who, in theory, plays the same role, understandable to say the least.
Up top, the ever-present Rodman returns along Sarr (who is also still injured) and Rose Kouassi to form arguably the most relentless front line in the entire league. Spirit veteran Ashley Hatch, who seemed to be on the way out before deputizing late in the season after injuries to Rodman and Sarr, has dutifully gone about her job in whatever role Giraldez has asked of her. It still isn't clear how she fits a Spirit attacking line built around pace, on-ball skill, and high energy pressing, but, well, she's still here for now.
The Spirit's big question was at CB before the recent addition of former Rayadas captain and Mexico international Rebecca Bernal. Bernal figures to provide both competition for former Manchester City youngster Esme Morgan and perhaps offer some depth at holding midfield while Sullivan continues to recover. The marvelous and constantly improving Tara McKeown will undoubtedly occupy one of the two CB spots, but who starts next to McKeown on opening night will be an interesting competition between Bernal and Morgan after 2024 starter Anaig Butel left the club in the offseason. Bernal has much more experience and should have the edge over her younger teammate, but the Spirit brass have been high on Morgan despite some issues experienced adjusting to the pace of NWSL play in her first season and keeping her on the bench would be a mild surprise.
Before we leave DC, let's give Krikorian a little credit. He absolutely nailed the notoriously impossible-to-nail NWSL draft and locked in two key starters as a result, smartly added upper tier NWSL veterans in free agency each of the past two off-seasons in Narumi and Casey Krueger, and deftly built a cheap-but-perfectly-fitting front line around Rodman. Washington still has some work to do in building out defensive depth, but they have a coach that knows his stuff, a home atmosphere unrivaled on the East Coast, a perfectly balanced team with cap room to spare, and a bonafide superstar in Rodman. Barring injury catastrophe, I have more faith that the Spirit will be in the top three than any other side. And that, my friends, is why they come in at Number 1 in the preseason power rankings.
Player to watch: Rosemonde Kouassi (LW)
I threw Kouassi a brief mention earlier, but a quick note on her here as well: She should, in theory, start on the left wing opposite Rodman, and would be my choice for the 2nd annual Summer Yates honorary "most likely to appear in my weekly recaps column" award. Kouassi signed from D1 Arkema side Fleury in the summer and immediately slotted into the Spirit lineup on the left, starting seven of eight matches and playing 552 minutes. Perhaps best known for the end of season dust up which saw her and Chicago winger Ludmila receive rather lengthy suspensions, Kouassi is an absolute terror: She's a 99th percentile 1v1 player who will undoubtedly benefit from the attention afforded Washington's other attacking talent. Oh, and then there's, well, THIS:
Projected Starting 11:
#2 Orlando Pride
Key additions: Zara Chavosi (CB), Kat Asman (GK), Prisca Chilufya (W)
Key losses: Adriana (W)
How, you might ask, are the defending double winners not ranked first sight unseen? What more do you need to see?
Outside of more people in the Exploria Stadium seats on game day (cmon Orlando, go watch this freakin team!), the Pride doesn't really need to show me anything else. I have Orlando ranked behind the Spirit simply because I think the NWSL is too competitive for a repeat champ and I wanted to shake it up. It's a negligible difference. Flip the two in your mind if you must. Print out the rankings and use it as motivational fodder. Scream "you idiot, how could you doubt this team" at your screen. Whatever. Just remember who had Orlando ranked eight spots higher than consensus going into 2024.
The fact is, there are no real reasons why Orlando should regress. They return nearly every key piece (barring one Saudi-bound Brazilian) from the team that came just three matches from the NWSL's first ever invincible season. In striker Barbra Banda, they have, at worst, the third best striker in the league, and at best, a completely unstoppable purple blur heading their front line. Behind Banda is the seemingly ageless Marta, who signed a two year extension with Orlando in early January. A second Brazilian anchors the Pride midfield in six Angelina, who was both perhaps the most underrated player in the league in 2024 and the player who committed the now-infamous uncalled foul that led to Banda winning the Championship game against the Spirit. The best backline in the league returns, led by CB Emily Sams and LB Kerry Abello. And perhaps most importantly, COTY Seb Hines returns to continue to emit the coolest sideline vibes of any coach.
The only roster concern is that Orlando haven't really strengthened at all this offseason, as of the time of writing after swapping Adriana for Zambian number 3, Prisca Chilufya. They will, presumably, get Banda's international teammate and attacking midfielder Grace Chanda back when she recovers from a ruptured quad sustained during the Olympics --an injury exacerbated by the incompetence and all around awfulness of former Zambia manager Bruce Mwape who forced her to train after sustaining the injury-- but GM Haley Carter seems to have taken the "why mess with what worked" view so far this offseason.....which is a relatively fair stance to take. It isn't as though Orlando were a picture of perfect health during last season's run: Adriana, Marta, Banda, and Angelina all spent periods on the sidelines, and Brazilian CB Rafaelle played just nine matches, starting only six. Orlando will struggle if they have to go without Banda for an extended period of time, but that is true of any team in a salary cap league. Plus, I'm inclined to trust Carter's read of the roster after the Pride GM authored the most successful rebuild in league history.
How they want to play:
Formation-wise, Hines generally sets up his team in a 4-2-3-1 with Banda at the point, Marta in the 10, two wingers (typically a combo of Summer Yates, Ally Watt, Adriana, and Julie Doyle), and a double pivot of Angelina and Haley McCutcheon. We saw Hines change this up a few times in big games, including the famous Week 16 clash of the unbeatens with KC where he played Yates and Marta as 8s behind Banda in what looked like a 4-3-3, before Carrie Lawrence's red card forced a change of plans. For the most part, however, he kept the same general structure.
What really made the Pride tick was how Hines so clearly defined each player's role. Winger Summer Yates, who I waxed lyrical about for much of 2024, is probably the best example. Yates is a little jitterbug; an inverted winger who wants to cut in and find space underneath. She thrived playing off Banda due to the Zambian's ability to run the channels. The clip below is a typical Pride attacking sequence, especially against possession-oriented teams like North Carolina: Yates created a number of chances like this one for Banda by picking the ball up from deep, progressing forward, and playing balls into space for Banda to chase.
Banda's combination of work rate and stamina also allowed Orlando's wingers to invert frequently while still offering the threat of balls in behind. Yates and Adriana both like working from the inside, which allowed Banda to fill the space left by her winger inverting.
Because they knew their greatest threat lay in behind, Orlando, like Washington, preferred to play deep in shape instead of running a consistent high press or looking to keep possession. Orlando was second to last in the league in PPDA (passes per defensive action), a statistic which measures how many passes the opposition plays before a challenge is made. For context, Orlando and Washington finished in the bottom four in PPDA. The other two teams in the PPDA bottom four? Seattle and Chicago.
In many ways, this was the story of the 2024 NWSL season stylistically: The double winners didn't actually want much of the ball because of how ruthless they were when they got it. Orlando trusted their defense to soak up enough pressure while simultaneously disrupting the opposition enough to prevent high quality opportunities, and it mostly worked. Despite having a deep line of confrontation, the Pride conceded only 18 goals and allowed the third fewest xG in the league. It's a little thing, but Orlando was excellent at trapping teams against the sideline. Look at how Orlando immediately identifies the trigger when the ball gets out wide to Alyssa Thompson in the clip below: Abello steps immediately, Julie Doyle marks the reverse ball, Yates covers the forward ball, and Marta reads the out pass and starts an Orlando counter. Plays like these demonstrate how Orlando was so good at starting quick counters- Hines had his team so well drilled that they could constrict and lengthen at pace. When you have the speed that not only Banda, but Watt and Adriana provide(d).....well, it's a deadly combo.
2025 Season Outlook:
Cover your ears, Pride fans. This is where I tell you where things could get a little shaky. Remember that "3rd fewest xGA" number I referenced just moments ago? Well, that third lowest xGA number (27.1) was still 9.1 xG more than the number of goals the Pride actually conceded, good for the third biggest defensive over-performance in the league behind only bottom feeders Houston and Utah. The point of season-long xG numbers is that they typically normalize, so don't be shocked if the Pride regress a little bit on that side of the field. The good news is that even a nine goal xG regression would have kept the Pride in the league's top three in fewest goals allowed, which ain't too shabby.
One of the most under-covered reasons for Orlando's magical 2024 was the leap taken by the Abello-Strom-McCutcheon trio. All three players had been part of Orlando's 2022 side, a side which conceded 45 goals and accumulated just 22 points en route to a 10th place finish. Abello was a rookie in 2022, but both Strom and McCutcheon have been in the league since 2018. Hines has transformed Orlando's defense without a major talent infusion: Emily Sams is brilliant, but one player a defense does not make. The addition of a full season of Carson Pickett in support of Abello and a hopefully healthy Rafaelle makes Orlando's already-impressive defense much deeper. Carter probably views those two players as pseudo signings (I know, I hate it when teams I support call players returning from injury new signings too), and with good reason: Both are veterans with decades of experience between the two of them.
The Pride remain a little shallow along the front line. A healthy Chanda should take some of the pressure off Marta and Chilfuya should be a 1:1 replacement for the now-departed Adriana, but Ally Watt and Julie Doyle remain the only depth pieces up top. Doyle, Abello's 2022 draft class mate, was another of one of the Pride's unheralded group of utility-women to take a substantial leap under Hines, but doesn't offer the same pace and creativity as the attackers in front of her. It shouldn't matter too much: Orlando's role players are all so versatile that Hines has been able to backfill positions when needed. McCutcheon has played on the right wing in addition to right back and central midfield, Doyle has played both in midfield and on the right wing, Yates has played on the left and in the center, and 2024 rookie Cori Dyke played in defense and central midfield.
Player to watch: Prisca Chilufya (W)
Full disclosure, I wrote this section before Adriana's somewhat shocking departure for the land of human rights violations (and lots and lots and lots of money) was announced, but almost everything I had written about the former league MVP candidate in 2023 --who almost single-handedly guided Orlando out of bottom of the table ignominy into just-above-bottom of the table ignominy-- applies to her Zambian replacement. Adriana had really come on late last season after some injuries slowed her down in the first half of the year, but she only looked like herself in fits and starts. We don't know a ton about Chilufya, but she should have some nice chemistry with her countrywomen Banda and Chanda. In typical good-GM fashion, Carter had Chilufya lined up as soon as Adriana requested a trade, so Orlando will have a few months to integrate her into the side before the season. I won't be shocked if Watt or Doyle start the first few matches while Chilufya gets acclimated to the NWSL, but I will be surprised if Chilufya isn't starting by Week seven or eight.
Projected Starting 11:
#3 Kansas City Current
Key additions: Lorena (GK), Rocky Rodriguez (CM), Haley Hopkins (W/ST)
Key losses: Stine Ballisager Pedersen (CB)
Does it feel like the Current are flying a little under the radar this offseason? No? Just me? Maybe it's just the contrast to last offseason when the Current rebuilt their front line and midfield with the additions of Temwa Chawinga, strike partner Bia Zaneratto, and psychotic teenage pitbull Claire Hutton; but the relatively low-key adds of depth midfielder Rocky Rodriguez and and Brazilian keeper Lorena haven't quite made the same splash as last year. But that's OK! Good teams don't need to make big adds.
(Oh yeah, they also did a teeny tiny nepotism with the signing of Duke forward --and daughter of owners Angie and Chris Long-- Mary Long, but ya know, so it goes)
Like Orlando, KC's relative inactivity to this point in the offseason is understandable. They have their core pieces in Chawinga, Debinha, Bia, and Hutton; but they also added former Reign CB and Vlatko favorite Alana Cook in the summer to enhance their central defense after young Gabbie Robinson went down with an ACL early in 2024. It appears that KC have done most of their major roster work over the past two transfer windows and have few major roster holes. The Current currently sit at 24 active players, but crucially have three key pieces (Robinson, Bia, and teen forward Alex Pfeiffer) on the SEI list, which, if any returns are on the horizon, may stub any impetus on the part of new Current GM Caitlin Carducci to make significant adds before further need is shown.
How they want to play:
In contrast to the two teams I have ranked above them in these preseason rankings, the 2024 edition of Vlatko Andonovski's Current did have a very clear and observable plan of action: Get the ball forward, and fast. A few statistics for you, per OPTA (data only through August):
The Current were first in the league in pace of buildup at 1.91 m/s.
KC had the second fewest passes per attacking sequence in the league, trailing only 2010 Stoke Ci- I mean, the Chicago Red Stars.
KC trailed only Gotham (by one, 111-110) in tackles made in the opponent's defensive third over the course of the season
As a result of that pressure, KC forced 243 high turnovers, 54 of which resulted in a shot. That is 23 more shots created from turnovers than second place Gotham.
I do want to reiterate the point that I made in my exit survey for the Current back in November, which is that KC are not necessarily a constant press machine like Gotham or other front-foot teams tend to be, and that their press was typically a coordinated effort to win the ball using pressing triggers. As I wrote in November:
If verticality is not necessarily a feature of every Vlatko Andonovski side, real NWSLers will remember that, at least at club level, midfield shape certainly is. The Current's defensive style required both immense talent and discipline to work. If you watched a lot of Current soccer in 2024, it probably seemed like they were constantly on the front foot because of how aggressive their individual presses were, but KC are a particularly interesting case because their PPDA (passes per defensive action, or how many passes the other team makes before a challenge is made) was actually relatively average. Kansas City did, however, finish tied for the league lead in tackles in their opponent's defensive third. PPDA, while a good indicator of how often a team presses, is not necessarily how well they press and Kanas City is Exhibit A. Vlatko didn't press all the right buttons over the course of the season, but his team had clear pressing triggers, particularly when the opposition played the ball out from the back. Here is an example clip from the semi against Orlando: Marta receives the ball marked by Lo Labonta, Marta dallies a little too long the ball, and Michelle Cooper pounces, with the ball deflecting to Vanessa DiBernardo who plays the ball into Temwa Chawinga. That was essentially KC's game plan: Sit, wait, pounce, Chawinga. They didn't want the ball, because they were much more dangerous without it.
Here are a few more clips of the different forms the KC press took over the course of the season. The first clip below is just Chawinga being Chawinga, single-handedly forcing a mistake from Houston CB Tarciane before speeding down the field past the rest of Houston's hapless backline and finishing, but the second is just as important an example of how KC press operates: The Current front three keep a high line and force a pass into the midfield, where Claire Hutton steps in, wins the ball from Marta, and starts the counter from midfield.
Positionally, Vlatko has typically preferred a 4-2-3-1 with Hutton partnering Lo Labonta in the middle of the KC midfield behind 10 Vanessa DiBernardo. After coming off the bench for most of the first half of the season, second year winger Michelle Cooper took over the right wing spot and took advantage of the attention Chawinga received to find space. KC remains relatively shallow at the 9 when Bia Zaneratto is unavailable, Andonovski preferring to play Debinha as a false 9 instead of a more traditional striker. At fullback, Vlatko seemed to settle on rookie Ellie Wheeler --who had a mostly excellent opening campaign-- paired with Hailie Mace on the left. The Current, interestingly, cycled through three starting fullbacks, Izzy Rodriguez starting a majority of the season's early games before Vlatko settled on the Wheeler/Mace combo as the season came to a close.
2025 Season Outlook:
One thing you may not associate with the Current is a dominant defense --Kansas City conceded 31 goals on the season, trailing Gotham and Orlando (20), and Washington and North Carolina (28)-- but in actual fact, the Current fell victim to some significant xG underperformance in 2024. While the other top four teams either outperformed their xGA (Gotham at +6.8, North Carolina at +8.3, and Orlando at +8.5) or hit it right on (Washington at +0.1), the Current finished the season at -7.3. In other words, KC's xGA was 7.3 goals lower than the 31 they conceded over the course of the season, meaning that the gap to fellow Shield contenders Orlando and Gotham netted out at around -15. That's a big gap to overcome.
Now, positive xG regression certainly isn't a given season to season, and especially so on the defensive side. Teams that concede low xG chances don't always do so the following year. That said, I found myself surprised to find that KC's defense was so sturdy by the numbers. It certainly didn't feel that way at times, especially on set pieces where KC consistently struggled. It is safe to say that KC's front office didn't feel so good either, going out and replacing their keeper (first AD Franch with Almuth Schult in the summer, then Schult with Lorena in the offseason) and adding both Cook and veteran Kayla Sharples to a depleted CB corps in the summer. KC's defensive performance will be something to monitor in 2025- Their press takes some of the pressure off the defense, but it also opens the spine of the side up to counters if teams are able to beat the press.
Fortunately, even if the defense does struggle at times, there are no reasons to have such fears about the offense unless Chawinga suffers an injury. KC's 2024 offense was historically great, and they return every key piece. The Current scored 56 goals, good for 2.16 per match (lol), and seven better than their closest competitor. The 56 goals virtually matched their season-long xG output of 53 (six better than 2nd place Orlando), meaning that there really wasn't any over-performance here. They were just that good. It will be interesting to see if teams start to sit off KC a little more in 2025. The Current looked at their worst when other teams scored first and were able to sit back in shape, nullifying some of the benefits of the Current press (think the 2-1 loss to Orlando in KC), so look for more teams to try to uno-reverse the Current's counter-attacking ways. Even if the offense does hit a few roadblocks, if Chawinga and Hutton stay healthy and that backline continues to improve, KC will be right in the mix for the Shield once again.
Player to watch: Bia Zaneratto (ST)
Bia was the Current's biggest offseason signing, but was plagued by injuries for much of 2024 and played only 16 matches and only 866 minutes. It's hard to say that the Current attack missed Bia TOO much --I mean, look at their goal record-- but it's hard to overemphasize how perfectly the Brazilian fit the Current attacking style and how much the league missed her while she was gone.
Bia is a tank in ballet slippers. When healthy, she was perfect partner for Chawinga, her off ball movement and hold up play opening up space for the entire Current offense. She's equally capable of posting up a CB as she is running in behind. The following clip is from Week One, where Bia runs a absolutely filthy --to borrow some football parlance-- slant and go route on poor Thorns CB Isabella Obaze before finishing effortlessly into the bottom corner.
Bia has suffered through plantar fasciitis, which, for anyone who has ever had it, is notoriously hard to get over....and especially so if you're a pro athlete. She appeared to have had recovered after missing the Olympics, but was surprisingly placed back on the SEI list in November, putting her status for 2025 in doubt. Rumors are that she's nearly pain free and will begin training shortly. If she remains sidelined, Chawinga will need to continue to carry KC as Debinha ages, or one of Nichelle Prince, summer signing Jereko, or Cooper will need to step up. For KC fans and neutrals, lets hope she can recover in time to make an impact.
Projected starting 11:
#4 North Carolina Courage
Key additions: Jaedyn Shaw (AM), Hannah Betfort (ST), Shinomi Koyama (CM/FB)
Key losses: Narumi Miura (CM), Kerolin (RW), Haley Hopkins (ST/LW)
Let's be honest: I went chalk with my first three picks. You can yell at me. I shrink in embarrassment. My cowardice knows no bounds. There is no (at least as of yet) 2024 Orlando Pride prediction to be proud of in the 2025 version of this column both because, well, I think the top three teams are just that good, and because I haven't seen enough from another team to justify their inclusion in the much-desired first preview piece. We don't want to be contrary just for the sake of it, ya know? But I digress.
There is, however, a lone 2025 intruder brave enough to break into the exclusive club of last year's four semifinalists, and it probably won't be a surprise to anyone that it takes the form of Cary's finest, the North Carolina Courage. I like to think I have a pretty good finger on the pulse of Sean Nahas's side. They were the only team whose final table position I correctly predicted in 2024, but they are also an extremely interesting side tactically because of Nahas' intrinsic desire to tinker. For years, the Courage have been the most fun team to watch on film because of all the little ways Nahas' system rubs off on his players.
This year, I suspect many will be extremely out over their skis on the Courage, and I fear I am one of them. In a massive victory for small markets everywhere, now-ex Wave midfielder/winger/striker and USWNT superstar Jaedyn Shaw requested a trade away from sunny San Diego, its impeccable weather, and the ghost of Jill Ellis to lovely Cary, North Carolina and historic WakeMed Soccer Park to play under Nahas. From the reporting, it appears Shaw requested a trade early in 2024 when, well, shit was starting to hit the fan in San Diego County, but the most notable aspect of Shaw's trade request is that she specifically asked to be traded to North Carolina. Not the concrete jungles of New York (/New Jersey), Audi Field in DC, Orlando, or any other NWSL market....but freaking Cary, North Carolina. What does that tell us? Well, mostly that Nahas has some serious goddam pull.
Shaw is pretty much a 1-for-1 replacement for Courage talisman Kerolin, who sadly departed the NWSL for the oil riches of the blue side of Manchester and the managerial incompetence of Gareth Taylor. Kerolin missed most of 2024 with a torn ACL and the impact of the 2023 league MVP may have slightly diminished as a result among casual fans, but not in these streets: At her best, the Brazilian was the nothing less than the best player in the NWSL, a creative hub who combined on-ball wizardry with electric pace. While she never got back to herself in 2024, Kerolin is still just 25 and will likely do just fine in Manchester. It's a big loss for the Courage that shouldn't be understated simply because of Shaw's arrival.
How they want to play:
Nahas, as a general rule, plays a 4-3-3 that looks more like a child got ahold of a coaching magnetic whiteboard and moved all the pieces to the middle. I've seen folks call it a lot of different things, so don't worry about the specific label. It's really just a symphonic jumble of movement. North Carolina's MO under Nahas has long been keep ball, but their equally long-standing problem has been that the Courage are far too often the poster-child for the phrase "possession without purpose." North Carolina comfortably led the league in total touches in the middle third of the field, but were 5th in touches in the final third. They led the league in possession rate with a whopping 57.3 percent --over 3 percent higher than the NWSL's second place side, San Diego-- but finished ninth in xG generated. The graphic below encapsulates North Carolina's issue in one image: The Courage led the league in passes by a tremendous margin, but only Houston and Chicago (!!!) had fewer total shot creating actions over the course of the season. Put simply, that kind of chance creation rate is thoroughly unacceptable for a team that saw as much of the ball and has as much creative talent as North Carolina did in 2024.
So what was the problem? It may sound simple and perhaps a tad reductive, but....well, they just didn't have a striker. With the now-departed Kerolin sidelined for most of the season, the Courage made the decision to go the entire season without picking up a traditional striker. It's possible this was some sort of weird soccer masochism on the part of Nahas -- an "I can play without a striker and still win" type thing-- but it really damaged the Courage over the course of the season. For most of 2024, Nahas utilized a combination of lifelong central midfielder Briana Pinto and young Japanese playmaker Manaka Matsakubo at what, in theory, was his nine. In practice, this just meant that either Pinto or Manaka was the furthest attacking midfielder forward, not only dulling North Carolina's point of attack, but limiting the creative powers of Manaka who was playing a mostly unfamiliar role. Without a true striker, North Carolina's fleet of playmakers -- namely Ashley Sanchez and Manaka-- had no one to play-make for. And the Courage largely suffered for it.
"Go out and sign Jaedyn Shaw" may not seem like the answer to "we need a striker," but --if Nahas intends to play her there-- Shaw fits Nahas' false nine position like a glove. The graphic below shows Shaw's last season in the wreckage of whatever the 2024 Wave were compared to Manaka's output for the Courage. The two are similar players in some sense, but Shaw unquestionably has a little more incisiveness and physicality to her game, as evidenced by the higher expected assists output. I'd expect her 2024 numbers to go up substantially under Nahas because of the role she'll be asked to play- Under the Casey Stoney/Landon Donovan calamitous double act, Shaw was played mostly as an inverted winger or as a deeper lying midfielder than she would prefer. Under Nahas, whether she does take on the false 9 or plays a little wider, she should act as the fulcrum of the Courage attack. Shaw has a lot more goal-scoring juice than the rest of her Courage attacking mates: Her 17 G/A over her three years in the NWSL exceeds the output of any other Courage player not named Ashley Sanchez. And that can only be good news for an attack sorely in need of some juice.
2025 Outlook:
A big 2024 story in Courage Country was the play of their relatively unheralded backline comprised of Ryan Williams, Kaleigh Kurtz, Malia Berkely, and Felicitas Rauch. With the caveat that the Courage did over-perform their xGA by over eight goals, North Carolina did finish the season with the third best defensive record in the league, behind only Orlando and Gotham. One of the keys to North Carolina's defensive success was their consistency: 75% of their backline played over 2000 minutes, Kurtz playing every minute of the 2024 season for her third iron woman season of her career, and Berkely and Williams starting 25 of the 26 matches. Kurtz was recognized for her play with a spot on the NWSL Best XI, with Williams -- who was the best right back in the league for my money-- winning herself a spot on the 2nd team.
The midfield is where things start to get interesting. Narumi Miura, the metronome next to Denise O'Sullivan's grit in the middle of the Courage lineup, somewhat surprisingly decamped for the Spirit. It is possible that the Courage simply went out and replaced her with her countrywoman and U-20 captain Shinomi Koyama, bringing in the Japanese youngster from Swedish side Djurgardens for a relatively hefty fee. Shinomi has played all over the field in her young career, mostly in midfield and at FB, making the on-paper fit relatively seamless for Nahas, who values positional versatility over all else. It is likely she'll slide right into Narumi's spot, but don't discount the possibility she could play some FB as well with Pinto sliding back to partner O'Sullivan.
The frontline picture remains a tad blurry. Shaw will presumably play at the false nine, but North Carolina is yet to make any additions on the wings where Tyler Lussi, the now-departed Haley Hopkins, and summer signing Aline Gomes rotated in 2024. If the Courage have a weakness, it is on the wing: Nahas will hope summer signing Cortnee Vine will fight herself into the team after a relatively slow start to her Courage career, but North Carolina also has Olivia Wingate, who was used primarily as a supersub when the Courage needed goals, and Bianca St. Georges, who was used primarily when the Courage needed to defend a lead. Brazilian 19 year old Aline Gomes showed some potential, but she's far from a consistent option. There is, of course, the chance that either Shaw plays out wide as an inverted winger and Manaka retains her false 9 role to allow her to stay in the team, or Sanchez takes on that inverted winger role with Manaka as the 3rd midfielder......but Nahas is notoriously unpredictable. North Carolina's lineup on March 15th should tell us a lot.
The Courage will always have a high floor because of how structured Nahas keeps his teams, but their ceiling will be decided by how well Shaw can replace Kerolin's 2023 production. It is hard for me to project them above the firepower of the top three teams in the league, but if North Carolina can remedy the chance creation and goal scoring issues that plagued them throughout 2024 and have the backline replicate its 2024 performance, they may be in with a shout of making things interesting.
Player to watch: Jaedyn Shaw (AM/ST)
I think I already covered Shaw enough already: The biggest transfer story of the summer is going to have all eyes on her going into 2025. How and where Nahas uses her will be the absolute biggest thing in NWSL I'll be watching in Week 1.
One more bonus hit: Keep an eye on Courage midfielder and USWNT U-20 international Riley Jackson. The 18-year old Jackson understandably didn't play a ton in her rookie season, accumulating just 318 minutes over her 18 matches played, but Nahas has raved about her. It is most likely a season or two too early for Jackson to break into the first team with any consistency, but she's yet another talented attacking midfielder waiting in the wings if Nahas needs her.
Projected Starting 11:
Comments